Baby Budget!
October 17, 2021
A Budget Unfit For Adults!
We’ve just had the latest in a long line of budgets each one contributing to our woes, worsening our Public Health Crisis, deepening our property crisis guaranteeing unaffordability and higher prices. This one is no different.
As we drift towards darker clouds such as a major loss in Corporation tax compounded by Brexit, Covid 19 and the consequences of the pandemic and global slowdown, there is no comfort to be sought from our membership of the EU. There is no renegotiation of our sell out of our fisheries.
We got our share not on the basis of territorial waters and our rights to same, but on the basis of quota, our fishing fleet was small and inshore, Europeans such as the Spanish and French fleets were modern and industrial harvesters with quota to match. We gave it all away just as today without compensation, our Corporation tax is taking a hike back to Europe.
The Tánaiste Leo Varadkar perhaps in homage to those resigning from Sláinte Care must have demanded a red line over the budget’s commitment to extend free Healthcare to children aged up to 10 years.
Seasoned parents aware they themselves through inexperience may have been encouraged to visit the doctor’s doorstep more often than they should have if such visits were free, questioned whether doctors already overwhelmed with work, should be asked to deliver such a service with resources better spent on more urgent need.
Young parents were also targeted on the childcare issue with costs frozen to prevent further rises in childcare costs for young people. Not much of a saving there where costs are already unaffordable.
Rising inflation with rises in the cost of electricity, petrol and household goods, was backdrop to a budget that at best sugar coated a pill the public have been forced to swallow on a annual basis.
Rather than curing the ills faced by all by a dysfunctional property market and a health service coming apart at the seams, the sugar coated pill is meant to paralyse dissent and to satiate those taking their pound of flesh from our property market. Institutional investment funds didn’t bat an eyelid maintaining their rising share prices for cuckoo fund investors.
There are those in society benefiting from the way the status quo works and they are not only landlords. Politicians who need to stay in power cultivate indifference and contempt for change often mass self delusion.
It takes an adult to recognise the real needs of people.
Sugar coated pills with avoidance of real change and a perpetual subservience to a toxic status quo destroying lives through homelessness and lack of proper health care, that’s the domain of an arrogant and immature identity mainstay of our political culture at this time.
The politics of appeasement with problems swept under the carpet and ignored. It’s a Housing for All Strategy that is threadbare in effective action. A failure to deal with supply and affordability/
One may question the absurd retro fitting homes to cope with climate change when a) that money needs to be spent on building new homes for people who have no homes b) people do not have resources to spend on such excess c) the resources of manpower etc in a housing emergency need to be spent in building homes.
Sorry to tell you our current lot of politicians care not a whit about the public good or real needs of society. If you havn’t guessed from reading the baby budget pipe dream for the naive.
The sugar coating of the budget give aways is meant to keep things the way they are. Not so much robbing Peter to pay Paul but rather robbing Peter to pay Peter and Paul.The way things are they are bound to get worse. Expect more property price frenzy, housing shortages, nó accommodation for students or for swathes of our population, a collapsing health service, lack of infrastructure, water, electricity, gas. There is now a high likelihood of power shortages while hospital waiting list climb towards a million.
We’ve a giant mess in the making.
Continuing to act in the same way having failed to adapt to changed circumstances is a recipe for disaster.
A mature reflection on our budget might lead our way out of the EU, restore our fishing rights, join with NI in a new Ireland partnership with UK, new Trade Agreements, a true All Ireland free of the shackles of the EU; instead, we have this relentless marching towards further
enslavement of our young people by ruthless financial forces working to remove the right to own property, decrease spending on infrastructure and health care and education, the imposition of a democratic deficit by direct rule through incompetent policies whose ravaging of society grows by the day.
Baby budgets increase our compliance and obedience to the dictats of Europe not so much cause of the poor vision of the current Taoiseach, enamoured by the powers vested in him by Europe, but by the self delusion that what has failed miserably in the past can be a fitting pill for the present if sugar coated enough and promoted with mindless vigour and smiles for the press.
But who is laughing? One day soon we may even see the Greens developing our forests to raise us from being one of the lowest per Hector countries in the EU. So far bureaucratic entanglements in that sector has hoovered up any resources spent on it. It’s difficult for farmers to get a license to plant never mind harvest timber.
Meanwhile “https://tradingeconomics.com/germany/zew-economic-sentiment-index
“The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for Germany dropped another 4.2 points from the previous month to 22.3 in October 2021, the lowest level since March 2020 when the COVID-19 pandemic hit Europe’s largest economy, sending investor morale sharply lower. The reading came in also below market expectations of 24.0 and moved further away from an over 21-year high of 84.4 hit in May, suggesting the outlook for the economic development in the next six months deteriorated sharply due to the persisting supply bottlenecks for raw materials and intermediate products. Investors now expect profits to go down, especially in export-oriented sectors such as vehicle manufacturing and chemicals/pharmaceuticals. The assessment of the economic situation in Germany also declined more than expected in October, falling by 10.3 points to 21.6.”
This budget will hasten the decline for many more of the citizens of this country than any previous budget combined.
Sterling is beginning to surge against the euro. Were we told it would collapse?
Till again…
The Scuttled Economy!
May 29, 2020
The FG/FF et al coalition negotiations continue. From the sublime to the ridiculous to the plainly undemocratic push back against the will of the people, we need a Referendum to establish reasonable limits on negotiations, 40 days?
Then its put to the people again!
I’m all for 2 meter Covid regulations if this were feasible. If such regulations scuttle the 
economy, we should pull back from them and only implement what is feasible. But weak governments tend to allow themselves be led by so-called experts. The trouble is those with medical expertise lack economic expertise. There appear to be no economic experts in government!
In 2008, so-called experts led us to pay off every bondholder even those who did not expect to be paid.
Here we go again! There’s now doubt about the medical expertise of the so-called experts! Currently, even the WHO is advocating a 1 meter rule. Our experts choose to ignore this advice and they have the backing of government! Saves government lacking in expertise to adopt government by proxy and allow others to do the job for them!
Covid 19 is a virus we are still learning about and this is why experts sometimes get it wrong. Initially, our fears based on movies such as https://www.townandcountrymag.com/leisure/arts-and-culture/g32419194/pandemic-movies/ led us to fear we were all going to die.
Gradually, we found out most people who got Covid 19 would recover from it though symptoms could be deadly especially for the elderly and those with underlying complications: if not deadly the worst could be similar to a nasty flu.
Then we found out children were not asymptomatic carriers never mind at risk of getting the disease.
On last Sunday I listened to RTE report there were 3 deaths from Covid. 2 of those were 92yrs old, the other person was 78yrs old. Yes, they died of Covid but let’s not understate the contributory factor of old age and its vulnerabilities, as also a factor!
Many journalists lack scientific training with the attention to detail this requires in regard to medical matters. This does not help objective coverage of the scientific evidence.
I would be particularly interested in more scientific investigation of what is meant by “underlying causes” that contribute to death by Covid 19, particularly, in the age group 18-65yrs. Why is it that someone aged 38yrs dies of Covid, while the vast majority recover from what may be mild symptoms to those compared to a nasty flu! More data needs to be gathered and analysed to help us learn more to help us live with the presence of this new virus as vaccination cure seems to be some years off.
Perhaps scuttling the economy and its benefits need to be accurately measured against the benefits of a more measured approach based on scientific evidence that requires us to throw all our expertise in detection, tracking and responding to clustering in eg our Nursing Homes of Covid 19? We will need to be good at this when lockdown ends and the second wave begins.
Throwing caution to the wind compared to showing caution regarding economic matters should not be the order of the day.
Keeping the elderly confined to their homes unnecessarily may be in breach of their democratic rights to self implement Covid advice should they choose to exercise caution without dictates imposed on them. Many Draconian and sinister laws and regulations can be introduced under the radar of Covid. We need to be on our guard.
Dictates is a troublesome word that conjures up images of dictatorship and tyranny and the disappearance of democracy. One interesting event recently was the intervention of the data protection agency objecting to the passing of personal Covid test results to employers previous to sending results to individuals concerned.
There’s currently emerging discussion on the feasibility of implementing a 2 meter rule for children returning to school this September. Some children may not have school but perhaps a curtailed attendance to a number of days per week. Sceptics way wonder is this a concealed way to spend less on education, to half class sizes, to pay teachers even less. To put education online, to end the provision of public education! Such ideas were off the table not long ago and belonged to the realm of sci fi? Let’s be optimistic and hope our children get the education they deserve.
It’s not looking good for our universities at the loss of upwards of half a billion revenue from foreign students that kept them afloat!
While we’ve all been carried merrily over the economic waterfall, we’re not quite sure what will happen when we land at the bottom of the waterfall. There does not appear to be any concern that some unmerciful disaster beckons that will pale into insignificance anything we’ve endured because of Covid.
There is an overweaning optimism that in spite of damage done, the economy will bounce back nationally and globally.
But Economics is a miserable science. And China is doing very well out of Covid and apparently is bouncing back.
Previous to Covid China was a growing septic tank of unsustainable economic bubbles led by massive borrowing including the generation of lending for ghost cities. It was about to reap the reward of its debt burdens leading a global slow down. Now its ahead of the West.
Response from the EU to the pandemic has been to throw €750bn as a recovery missile. The trouble is something similar was done after the crash in 2008, it was called QE (Quantitative Easing). Most of this money filled the pockets of the 1%. So in the past few years we’ve seen the numbers of millionaires and billionaires increase exponentially while the poor paid out of their pockets for this through austerity taxes and public service cutbacks.
Now the talk is of Loans and Grants. Who gives loans to poor people who cannot pay the loans back?
Grants are a different thing. Grants are more beguiling. I understand by a grant that it means the money doesn’t have to be paid back. But a recent discussion on the media gave me to understand that, in Orwellian Newspeak, the word has now been given another meaning.
We should pay close attention to where these euro billions go. There’s been little in the media regarding our slice of this cake.
“GRANTS” now means, you don’t have to pay the grant back until your business is making a profit and recovering. Then you have to pay it back! But isn’t that a LOAN?
Careful attention to the detail of how the EU will spend its €750bn is required. Many countries object to the way this money will be administered that’ll amount to preferential treatment of individual countries, unfair competition in the airline industry and elsewhere in the EU corporative structure. This exceeds the mandate for which the EU is set up.
This was never supposed to happen in the EU. It would appear reform in the EU is now back peddling; the UK through Brexit can consider it a lucky escape not to be on the hook for the €750bn.
Here’s a nostalgic look back at a Reform debate of some years ago:
Covid claims for success by the experts should be taken with a pinch of salt. Over half the deaths due to Covid occurred in our nursing homes. Regulations so far, have given breathing space for public services and hospitals to prepare for mitigating the second wave that will inevitably arise on return to the so-called normal. We cannot claim with any basis in science that our response to Covid has been proportional to the number of lives saved. But these claims will be made. Other measures such as those adopted by Sweden might have had the same amount of success with less of a detrimental effect on our economy.
For sure, when the second wave breaks over this country, we will be able to measure the economic consequences with more accuracy. Certainly with more clarity than the avoidance of economic consequences has achieved so far.
We’ve made mistakes in the management of the Covid outbreak not the least of which was allowing the match between Ireland and Italy go ahead with fans allowed to travel and mingle in Dublin a day before Italy itself shut its own borders. We made disastrous mistakes in the management of Covid in Nursing Homes and in Direct Provision Centres.
But overall we’ve done quite well. We can still avoid making a mess of opening up after lockdown.
Perhaps our mistakes may be the reason we lag behind Europe in opening up our lockdown.
Medical evidence is extensive supporting the fact children are not prone to Covid nor are they asymptomatic carriers.
But we maintain severe lockdown of schools with the threat that there may be imposition of a 2-meter rule that would mean schools would have to reduce their intake numbers next September.
Michael O Leary of Ryanair has cited the evidence from Europe that air travel with medical face mask precautions rules should allow planes to fly immediately and Europe itself is adopting its own scientific guidelines permitting this.
Yet we are introducing mandatory forms at airports that are useless: if Covid is diagnosed such information will more effectively be sought from the airline with information already on file to enable contact tracing.
Real scientific data on the progress of the virus through Europe and in Ireland is difficult to find. Testing remains problematic, biggest issue being the extent and the length of time required for proper testing; the symptoms themselves provide better data both for victims and service providers.
We need to be more scientific, more measured, more reactive to actual evidence and perhaps more humble and less arrogant in regard to evidence that is emerging on a little known virus with such devastating economic consequences.
Without detriment to the view for some this virus carries potentially deadly consequences….
We need an effective government in place instead of the pretenders to the throne who’ve long outstayed their welcome by our electorate. The scuttling of an economy can have equally lethal consequences for some as compared to the medical consequences of Covid-19.
till again..
Growing Absurdity of the EU!
November 13, 2019
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Emperor%27s_New_Clothes
“”The Emperor’s New Clothes” (Danish: Kejserens nye klæder) is a short tale written by Danish author Hans Christian Andersen, about two weavers who promise an emperor a new suit of clothes that they say is invisible to those who are unfit for their positions, stupid, or incompetent – while in reality, they make no clothes at all, making everyone believe the clothes are invisible to them. When the emperor parades before his subjects in his new “clothes”, no one dares to say that they do not see any suit of clothes on him for fear that they will be seen as stupid. Finally, a child cries out, “But he isn’t wearing anything at all!” The tale has been translated into over 100 languages.[1]”
You’ve all heard the story. Bearing in mind how Brexiteers, critics of the EU are often denigrated as stupid, incompetent, crazy or irrational, for fun lets look if the above tale has any bearing on the workings of the EU and Brexit in particular. Firstly, hands up, I should state at the outset, I’m in the Brexit camp. In fact, I go further, I’m also in the Irexit camp. Let me briefly tell you why. You can test the veracity of your judgment of my stupidity on some brief arguments. Have careful scrutiny of this video, if you please, even if you choose not to read the rest of this blog. Or not, up to You-:
In Ireland most things the government has anything to do with are broken. Our health service is broken, patients on trollies at record numbers and things worsen by the day. Doctors and nurses flee the country on a daily basis persuaded by a better life abroad and better conditions. Hospital waiting lists are at an all-time high some in need of serious medical intervention required to wait years for an urgent medical appointment. Our National Children’s Hospital’s construction budget is out of control with estimates rising from €2.5bn upward and a blank cheque was given to developers. It’ll be interesting to observe if the promised children’s hospital or indeed the promise of infrastructural projects flagged by Irish Water ever appear, on time, on budget, on schedule.
Ministers including members of the opposition courtesy of their cushion of ‘confidence and supply’ appear on TV on a daily basis grinning and defending their actions in solving the country’s problems. This appeals to the comfortably well-off and well-heeled including themselves who have an interest in perpetuating the benefits they gain from the system. Self-delusion and ignorance is often found in spades coupled with uncritical obedience and compliance to unquestioning political aspirations.
Attempts have been made to privatize our water supply utilities with our state-owned Irish Water currently dealing with Supplies for the Greater Dublin area unfit to drink before boiling. Ringsend sewage treatment plant drops effluent into the Irish sea because it hasn’t the capability to treat effluent during high rainfall.
Similar high rainfall problems in Leixlip Reservoir taking water from the Liffey supplying water to the Greater Dublin Nth Dublin in excess of 600,000 people affected. Just announced is infrastructural approval for a plant in Clonshaugh, Co Dublin scheduled optimistically for completion in the distant future 2026.
There is a difference between policy, planning for the future and actually delivering on the same.
The number of homeless people rises by the day. As we approach the coldest and wettest winter months its no longer surprising for walkers to see a tarpaulin or heavy plastic sheeting in a wooded area in a local park. I saw one this morning after a bitterly cold night with freezing rain.
Direct provision accommodation centers around the country provide Asylum seekers with accommodation and food, but with little privacy or independence. Likewise “We are currently dealing with an unprecedented demand for emergency accommodation across the Dublin region. We are committed to providing suitable accommodation to families with children who have lost their tenancy in the private rental sector.”
This short term solution is becoming a long term solution affecting the lives, health, social and psychological well-being of thousands of children and their parents. Direct provision and Family Hub centers are not on a vector replacing their concentration of lack of provision with proper accommodation, who knows for sure, they may be on a vector towards concentration camps common in another era.
Let’s look at a scenario where the above has become the norm rather than the exception driven by a government that does nothing to ameliorate the crisis. All of the above require large capital investment to provide the infrastructure to solve the above problems. The ICB will not allow the government to borrow the capital finance it requires. Why is this so? Welcome to the Casino of the European Central Bank.
Capital expenditure by our government is in lockdown. It’s in lockdown because of the meaning of the term “Fiscal Space” the difference between government expenditure and the amount it raises in taxes. The government needs to comply with ECB rules regarding the running of deficits, a deficit being larger outgoing obligations than that being raised by taxes to cover the deficit. In a further lockdown of public spending, the ICB is against largely scale public spending on housing that would bring down property prices and risk investors leaving the property market because of the danger of negative equity.
Ireland is a fully-fledged member of the EU. The Irish Central Bank:
“The European Central Bank (ECB) has been responsible for conducting monetary policy for the euro area since 1999. One of the ECB’s main tasks is to maintain the euro’s purchasing power and price stability in the euro area.
The Eurosystem comprises the ECB and the national central banks of those countries that have adopted the euro. The Central Bank of Ireland represents Ireland in the Eurosystem.”
Ireland has serious infrastructural problems it cannot get finance to solve. But let’s tease out for a bit the reason why:
Click to access PC-18_2018.pdf
“The distinctive feature of EMU comprised of sovereign countries is that debt restructuring
or debt monetization, which might be the consequences of excessive debt accumulation by
one country, heavily affects the other member countries. There is a risk that the ECB could
be pressured to use monetary policy to prevent a default in fiscally weak countries via debt
monetization. This monetization, ie the implicit transfer to the country whose public debt
is purchased by the ECB, might generate an inflation tax on all EMU countries or reduce
transfers from central banks to governments. Such transfers are not voted on by parliaments
and might eventually lead to a backlash against the monetary union, as the amounts at stake
are potentially very large.”
However, contrary to what the ECB would have us believe, there is ongoing and deep monetization of debt occurring in the EMU courtesy of ECB policy of Low-Interest Rates and its macroprudential policy of REPO payments (more about REPO shortly). Low-interest rates hurt savers, the public invested in pension funds; REPO payment system is a massive windfall to help the super-rich benefit from the stock market, the harvesting of large investment assets and their subsequent laundering for massive private gain. On the one hand, fiscal austerity for members of the EU and for the public at large, profligate indulgence handing out casino investment loans to corporations and large investors inflating the value of companies and financial assets and stock markets with printed money that is nothing but air; massive buyout of government bonds by the ECB all lead to a deluge of money inflating stock markets and property prices. This is leading to a massive concentration of wealth at the top of the pyramid for the super-rich. We’ll look at this further below.
Well understood at the time of the creation of the euro was the following;Article 123 of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union (TFEU) expressly prohibits the ECB from purchasing member countries’ public debt directly from public authorities. In addition, Article 125 of the TFEU prevents any form of EU liability for member states’ debt obligations (no-bailout clause). However, in a situation when there is a risk of a messy default and of a potential exit from the currency union, triggering contagion and collateral damage for all members, the cost of a bailout through financial assistance loans might be lower than the cost of default and exit. Therefore, the pressure for monetization and/or bailout through financial assistance loans is very strong, reducing the credibility of the no-monetization/ no-bailout rules (Gourinchas et al, 2018).
At various points during the euro-area sovereign debt crisis, Greece, Ireland, Portugal,
Spain and Cyprus had to ask for the support of other member states in order to avoid defaults
or collapses of their domestic banking sectors and, potentially, exit from the monetary union.
In addition, the expectation of bailouts might also have reduced market discipline in the
sense that the cost of borrowing for some countries might have been too low in the period
before the crisis. This might also have reduced the incentive for fiscal prudence, such as in
Greece in the 2000s. Note therefore that debt sustainability, not the public deficit per se,
should be the core objective in the EMU. Note also that macroprudential rules that limit the
vulnerability of financial institutions are a necessary complement to fiscal rules because, as
seen for example in Ireland and Spain, bank debts can rapidly be transformed into public
debts (Martin and Philippon, 2017)”
On the face of though we can nitpick aspects of the above, overall we might be persuaded there is some intentionality there that is virtuous and noble. But what are these ephemeral and unspecified macroprudential rules mysteriously alluded to in the above? Let’s delve deeper and uncover what they might be before we use terms such as virtuous prudence, or sound fiscal management.
The printing of money, the policy of purchasing government bonds, “In practice, government bonds of financially stable countries are treated as risk–free bonds, as governments can raise taxes or indeed print money to repay their domestic currency debt. For instance, United States Treasury notes and United States Treasury bonds are often assumed to be risk–free bonds.” https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Risk-free_bond
In practice, government bonds of financially stable countries are treated as risk-free bonds, as governments can raise taxes or indeed print money to repay their domestic currency debt.[1]“
But we know the EMU is on the brink of recession. None of the structural reforms required to address the inherent instability of the eurozone evidenced in the 2008 financial crash have been put in place. Bailouts of the super-rich and the system that created the mess only exacerbate matters. Predictions for the future are for matters to worsen.
For a more generalized and simplified discussion of the meaning of Fiscal Space with a short reference to the possibility of loosening by .05% Fiscal Space for Ireland, https://www.thejournal.ie/what-is-the-fiscal-space-2577710-Feb2016/
What you have read so far, as it were, nobly setting out the virtues and prudence of the theory of Fiscal Space as a bulwark of the common borders of the EU, is a falsehood. There are indeed at the very core and heart of the EU macroprudential rules that undermine the very nature of fiscal rectitude. To understand this we have to examine how the European Central Bank works, in particular, its commitment to low-interest rates and its support for heavily indebted economies such as that of Italy, to take as an example.
Italy is on the cusp of a financial meltdown. Many of its banks are insolvent without the hope of operating commercially without state aid. No one of sound mind would think of lending to them. For big businesses to function, corporations, developers and investors need to borrow from banks. Low-interest rates not only negatively impact the savings of savers hoping to live off a retirement lump sum, Low-interest rates encourage borrowing by large financial institutions and also provide aid to economies with large scale borrowings under threat of default. Let’s say low-interest rates punish savers and reward the profligate.
How does corporate casino work? Financial Institution A makes a bid for Company B valued at €500ml. Financial Institution A uses €100ml of its own capital and borrows the remainder from Bank C €400ml. Bank C cannot borrow money from other banks as none trust they’ll get their money back. To finance the transaction Bank C applies for a REPO drawdown from the ECB to finance this transaction and other money-spinners it has interest in. A cascade of money is generated some of it lying dormant in bank vaults until another borrower needs further financing and the cycle begins over again. To reflect greater money supplies in the system, assets such as Company B rise in value. Much like a property boom asset prices rise to give the false impression economic activity is rising when all that is happening is pyramid selling.
How long can this continue? Your guess is as good as mine. Brexit, Black swans, geopolitical unrest, rising concerns from the middle class and those unhappy with this state of affairs, unsustainability, all may contribute to its sudden collapse, The euro can fall as quickly as the Berlin Wall.
Large scale borrowing by banks and financial institutions is facilitated by the European Central Bank system of REPO payments.
The above rules are a recipe for austerity, deflation, lack of investment in public utilities, education, health and are egregious violations of the democratic free will of the European people and its governments and institutions. Not only do these rules impose austerity by subterfuge and deceit, but they also ensure the devaluation of money itself, increase the concentration of wealth in the rich, expand the numbers represented by the poor. They will eventually destroy and eliminate the middle class, democracy itself and ensure widespread political instability. Why is this so?
“Don’t Sell Yourself To The Corporate Of The Day” is a line from “I Love EU” in this cultish and idolatrous video by Gruff Rhys shown here to exemplify the pro-European Propaganda in circulation reminiscent of propaganda from another former era https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ur7_jT-obmc
Unfortunately, its not within the gift of Gruff Rhys to sell himself to the Corporate of the Day, The European Central Bank ECB, has already sold him to the Corporate of the Day.
To show how Gruff Rhys, governments through Fiscal management by the ECB, have been sold and fleeced by large corporations exploiting the ECB let’s look at how the FED manages its REPO market and its policy of low-interest rates. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8SE2W5b8dp8
The FED is in danger of losing control of its own REPO market. Compared to the loss of control represented by the ECB, the FED has still some way to go.
Finally, if you are a politician your mission is to avoid discussion such as the above. Be the shop window and sell the EU and sell austerity. Forget about the homeless, they’ll always be with us. Be the chorus for Gruff Rhys above. Forget about learning about the patient’s disease. Offer bandaids and enjoy whatever payoffs you and your colleagues can eek out of the diseased system.
You would think the homeless need to be apologized to, or the record numbers on hospital waiting lists, or those on hospital trollies. You might think the blank cheque signed off for the National Children’s Hospital that can go to 2.5bn and beyond could lead to another cheque to build a vast number of affordable houses and apartments. You might think a law could be passed to require qualifying doctors from our universities to spend at least 5 yrs working in Ireland to relieve the systemic crisis emigration of doctors is causing in our health service. You might think the cost of housing could be brought down by reducing vat on house building.
You’d be wrong. Don’t be fooled, the Emperor EU has no clothes on. He’s homeless living in a tent in a city park facing the growing onslaught of winter.
I hope this blog has given you some cause for thought. If so, I’ve done my little bit of work.
till again….
https://www.homelessdublin.ie/solutions/family-accommodation
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Emperor%27s_New_Clothes
Back (Get them back in EU) Stop (them leaving the EU)!
October 2, 2019
Clearly the backstop is being used like Thor’s hammer by both Remainers and the Irish government to prevent Britain leaving the EU on October 31st
Its a bit like Schrodingers Cat with the cat being both alive and dead at the same time but clearly the fact that the UK are leaving the EU means there has to be a border somewhere (see last blog Brexit without border). UK can’t leave the EU without a border around NI. Backstop in its purist form means NI stays within the Customs Union. Scant regard for the democratic will of the UK in its referendum.
If the same arguments however specious were used against our own referenda to stay in Europe although we voted against the EU for Lisbon and Nice, we should be arguing that our refusal to vote against the EU was misinformed. Whichever way you look at it, its a denial of democracy to deny the will of the electorate spoken in referenda.
When it comes to the EU we enter into the world of contradictions and Schrodinger cats nothing to do with Quantum Mechanics simply absurdity in plain sight. I’m not referring to Irelan’s ill-omened love affair with the EU being ignored and screwed after our financial collapse( financial collapse also a contradiction in that we joined up to ensure stability).
I’m not referring to the fact of dissolution of political power in Ireland after the arrival of the troike(they’re still here) with terms such as Fiscal Space code for not investing in Ireland’s infrastructure nor investing in housing as investment might hurt the pockets of the rich including the banks. Price falls to affordability may trigger negative equity sell-offs hurting the banks and triggering another crisis as if we’re not already in the middle of one.
It’s the gradual leeching of power away from a once sovereign state to invisible and shadowy bankers and bureaucrats ‘elected’ to the EU.
It’s also the little absurdities such as Ireland’s Fine Gael newly elected Trade Commissioner for the EU Phil Hogan former environment commissioner.
On Mercosur trade deal with South American countries, ” Mr Hogan said he “very much” understands “the concerns of agriculture”.
“But when you look at the cumulative impact in what we have achieved throughout the world in trade deals, we have a very positive outcome overall.””
That little reductio ad absurdum represented in the fact that without support to compensate for Mercusor Ireland’s agriculture industry has been dealt a severe blow beneath the waterline. Hogan I guess is being compensated by the promotion.
Perhaps he’s being promoted on foot of the disastrous emigration of the majority of doctors and specialists from our universities contributing to the worsening of our health service’s dive for the bottom. That maybe someone else?
Let’s look at what’s happening in Europe overall:
https://www.politico.com/news/2019/10/02/trump-eu-tariffs-020272 Trumo has just won a WTO judgment against the EU allowing him to impose tariffs up to 7.5bn dollars annually against state support for Airbus. Unlike the Argentinian Peso’s fall against the dollar with growth in the Argentinian economy building on a philosophy of ‘Build, Build, build’ the euro is stagnating and falling against the dollar currently 1.10 against the dollar, expect it to fall further. Latin American style.
Virtually no houses being built in Ireland, the few that are, are for the rich. #there are currently no infrastructure projects if you leave out the vast overspend on the National Children’s Hospital. Politics has become administration of a satellite state of the EU post troika. Governing parties take turns at it.
Currently the European Central Bank is stooping to negative interest rates to try to stimulate the euro. Well that’s the official line. Unofficially as pointed out by Ellen Browne “The Disaster of Negative Interest Rates” quoting
“Negative yields have been another blow for the European and Japanese banks hobbling from crisis to crisis, their shares wobbling along multi-decade lows. Negative yields are the final blow for pension and retirement systems. Negative yields distort the pricing of risk, and therefore distort the cost of capital and lead to business decisions that would otherwise be idiotic waste and malinvestment. This is an issue that is already playing out with low interest rates – such as share buybacks funded with borrowed money – and it gets a lot worse with negative interest rates.”
” negative interest rates as follow-up and addition to massive QE were effective in keeping the Eurozone glued together because they allowed countries to stay afloat that cannot, but would need to, print their own money to stay afloat. They did so by making funding plentiful and nearly free, or free, or more than free.
This includes Italian government debt, which has a negative yield through three-year maturities. The Italian 10-year yield is only 0.9%, rather than 7% or 8%, as it was during the Debt Crisis, when Italy was approaching a default, like Greece had already done. The ECB’s latest rate cut, minuscule and controversial as it was, was designed to help out Italy further so it wouldn’t have to abandon the euro and break out of the Eurozone.”
That’s even before the UK leave the EU. A currency on life support. If the UK leaves will there be a domino effect led by Italy if not Germany herself?
Manwhile as predicted by this Blog Boris Johnson has unveiled his Irish Sea compromise replacement for Brexit. Crucially the DUP and Unionists support it:
https://www.ft.com/content/a507c8b4-b412-3563-9647-9ab3ca0facff
The EU and Ireland will entertain no alternative to the absurd backstop.
It looks like we all need to get ready for Brexit.
Nice one Boris, mulling over your alternative to the backstop will be short and sweet. Not worth spending much time deliberating over it, it was already dead for the EU Barnier team and the Irish cabinet, before it was conceived.
Its not looking good for the EU with property speculation and tariffs sucking the heat out of the US economy never mind the EU economy, finally manufacturing output in the US dropping towards the floor. Brexit knocking on the door.
Till again….
Alternative to the Dud Backstop!
August 29, 2019
Its anti democratic to ignore the wishes of the British people who’ve voted many times against the backstop. Remainers hope that the coming weeks will show to Leavers there’s no alternative to the backstop. The prospect of a No Deal with positions getting more and more entrenched is increasing by the day.
Remainers demand of Leavers an alternative to the backstop. Let me propose an alternative to the backstop:
A New Deal from both the UK and the EU on the Irish question could be solved along the following lines:
There need be no hard border in Ireland. Trade between the UK and Ireland could continue on similar lines to trade today.
The New Deal between the UK and Ireland would need an active and strong participation from the Irish government. It would have to be an equal partner in a Task Force led by negotiators from the EU Task Force on Brexit, The UK Task Force on Brexit and a new Irish Task Force on Brexit.
The solution to the backstop removes a hard border between NI and Republic of Ireland/EU and places it outside Ireland in the EU of mainland Europe.
For this to work Ireland would operate as a Commonwealth satellite state of the UK and continue as a satellite state within the EU.
The consequence of this would mean that trade in Ireland would operate as part of the UK sterling area subject to its customs, tariffs and regulations as they develop between the UK and the EU hopefully as part of a new trade agreement.
Borders in Europe would treat Ireland for trade purposes as part of the UK. Goods sold in Ireland would be those distributed throughout the UK subject to similar tax and trade tariffs imposed by the UK.
Goods exported from Ireland would be treated the same as goods exported from the UK subject to border checking, tariffs and EU custom regulations.
But Ireland is a satellite state of the EU, how would that work? How can Ireland remain part of the single market?
Most of our trade is with the EU and through MNC’s global not necessarily to Europe alone. € 30 bn is with the US. We’ve growing trade links with the rest of the world. €2.3bn of NI exports are to ROI. While Ireland currently exports €13bn to the UK Ireland currently exports 4 times that to the EU.
But when it comes to indigenous industries such as agriculture: “Total value of agri-food exports in 2017 was almost €13.6 billion – 38% (€5.2 billion) went to UK”
https://www.agriculture.gov.ie/brexit/tradeandstatistics/
The solution to the backstop is to treat Ireland as a Special Case that requires a unique solution to the difficulties Brexit poses for both the UK and Ireland.
So let’s treat Ireland a special case and How Would We Do That?
We need to set up a Special Customs Channel for matters ROI related. After all what is being proposed is that there be no hard border on the island of Ireland, Ireland becomes part of the UK trading area, Ireland continues to be part of the Single Market EU Trading area.
It would be up to the task force to deliver a deal with the detail required to make this work. Let’s call the Task Force, Task Force Blue to take an arbitrary color coding.
‘Task Force Blue’ would set about a Blue customs regime. People with Irish passports travelling to the UK or to Europe would have a separate Blue channel with agreed, negotiated protocols as much as possible assisting in free movement of Irish people moving between the EU and UK.
This would ensure Ireland would not be a gateway for people emigrating to the UK seeking to avoid UK customs control. The less obtuse and invasive such border presence would be, the better.
As there would be no border between NI and ROI the Blue Channel would be checks taken at points of disembarkation and embarkation between the EU and ROI and the rest of the world.
So how would export/import of goods be regulated and monitored?
As already stated ROI would for tariff reasons be taken as part of the UK. However, with electronic controls and expertise a separate documentation Blue Customs channel would reimburse tariffs taken at point of entry to Irish importers. similarly for exports into the EU, tariffs could be taken at point of entry or prepaid, or taken later with the help of electronic management systems that would operate Blue documentation.
Again goods travelling from Ireland to EU would travel through a Blue channel. This would be electronically built for speed. Companies would register for Blue documentation that granted would allow for speedy pass through Blue customs. Perhaps tariffs would require to be prepaid, if so Blue documentation would ensure refund.
It should not be beyond the expertise of a joint EU, UK and ROI Task Force to work out a Blue Customs Channel that would work for all concerned.
It would neutralise the need for a hard border in Ireland and would compliment the Good Friday Agreement.
This would require expertise, ingenuity and detailed supervision and follow up to ensure fair enforcement and avoidance of potential abuse of documentation and customs regulation. The Blue customs Channel would respect and preserve the integrity of the EU Single Market and the UK customs and trade area.
The goal would be to avoid tariffs imposed on Irish goods by both the EU and the UK recognising the Special Case of ROI and the support it needs to avoid a hard border in Ireland with ROI remaining a satellite state of the EU.
Simply stated the Blue channel would treat Ireland as both part of the UK trading block and also part of the Single Market. Let’s say its a Quantum solution based on Quantum Mechanics where things are and are not at the same time.
An Irish exporter to the EU, would pay a tariff imposed on UK goods, with Orange documentation could be reimbursed that payment because ROI remains part of the single market.
The above Blue Channel requires enterprise, ingenuity, creativity and a certain amount of give on all sides to make it work. It will work.
The alternative is the Dud backstop and a No Deal Brexit. Don’t tell me Brexiteers and Irexiteers like yours truly are unable to produce an alternative to the Dud Backstop!
The Dud backstop was subject of last blog reproduced here if you’d like to read it:
till again…
The Dud Backstop!
August 13, 2019
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irish_European_Constitution_referendum
Mainstream media and RTE campaigns against Brexit are in full gallop. On a weekly basis cameramen and presenters from RTE head north to interview some unknown anti-Brexit politician on the border letting rip against Brexit. Usually a handful of people appearing before the camera.
https://www.rte.ie/news/ireland/2019/0806/1067131-brexit/
Its Fail, Fail, Fail everywhere for Leo Varadkar, housing disaster, HSE house of cards topples further with every new scandal queues increasing for everything, health checks, urgent operations. It would be unusual not to expect a disastrous handling of Brexit. You won’t be disappointed!
“A no-deal Brexit will not enable the UK to leapfrog unresolved issues to negotiate a free trade agreement with the EU, the Taoiseach has warned.
Leo Varadkar said in the wake of a no-deal, talks on a future trading relationship would still not begin until matters in the current withdrawal deal – such as citizens’ rights, the financial settlement and the Irish border – were resolved.”
That’s condescending, belligerent, truculent talk threatening obstructive obstacles to prevent any talks of a future trading relationship even beginning. In other commentaries, An Taoiseach has firmly insisted on the backstop.
Let’s think about this. Some regard the EU support for the Irish position is support for a trojan horse designed to break apart the unity of the UK:
“The EU is resigned to no deal and is united in its support for the Irish and maintaining the backstop…
The EU is resigned to no deal and is united in its support for the Irish and maintaining the backstop. Abandoning the backstop would mean accepting a hard border in Ireland for the long term and thus – in the view of most EU governments – endangering peace on the island. The EU thinks that no deal would not last for very long because the UK – suffering more than the EU – would come back and swallow a deal that resembled the withdrawal agreement.”
Indeed the Irish people had previously rejected the Treaty of Nice.
“To the surprise of the Irish government and the other EU member states, Irish voters rejected the Treaty of Nice in June 2001. The turnout itself was low (34%), partly a result of the failure of the major Irish political parties to mount a strong campaign on the issue, presuming that the Irish electorate would pass the Treaty as all previous such Treaties had been passed by big majorities. However, many Irish voters were critical of the Treaty contents, believing that it marginalised smaller states. Others questioned the impact of the Treaty on Irish neutrality. Other sections viewed the leadership of the Union as out of touch and arrogant, with the Treaty offering a perceived chance to ‘shock’ the European leadership into a greater willingness to listen to its critics. (A similar argument was made when Denmark initially voted down the Treaty of Maastricht.)
And yes Nice did marginalise smaller states such as Ireland in favour of a weighting system in favour of countries with more political clout and larger populations.
“The Irish government, having obtained the Seville Declaration on Ireland’s policy of military neutrality from the European Council, decided to have another referendum on the Treaty of Nice on Saturday, 19 October 2002. Two significant qualifications were included in the second proposed amendment, one requiring the consent of the Dáil for enhanced cooperation under the treaty, and another preventing Ireland from joining any EU common defence policy.”
The Second Referendum was passed. It’s noteworthy the above elements safeguarding Ireland’s neutrality are just about gone. Nothing is sacred in the EU’s march towards totalitarianism:
https://www.thejournal.ie/pesco-eu-ireland-3738016-Dec2017/
“THE DÁIL HAS voted to approve Ireland’s participation in Pesco – the EU’s permanent structured cooperation arrangement.
The motion was passed by 75 votes to 42. Both Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael backed the motion.
TDs from numerous political parties recently raised concerns about the government trying to “ram” through a vote on Ireland joining the defence pact.
The plan raised concerns here that it could undermine Ireland’s policy of neutrality.”
The changes to the EU constitution proposed by Lisbon rejected by the electorate were later disguised in the form of amendments to the constitution and brought in by the back door once again ignoring the democratic will of the people.
So it won’t be unusual for a pro-European like Varadkar to campaign against the democratic will of the UK electorate and its parliament but he will fail to woo Boris Johnson with Varadkar’s dud backstop.
But let’s be clear about this. Boris Johnson is not for turning. Lack of a fair trade agreement between UK and EU will hurt Ireland the most. We need to be talking bilaterally with the Tory government with the view to identifying new economic structures between the UK and EU that will work for Ireland, UK and EU. Damage limitation should be our priority.
Negotiations are threadbare at the moment, the latest for the EU being:
https://ec.europa.eu/info/departments/taskforce-article-50-negotiations-united-kingdom_en
Have a look at the composition of the European Task Force negotiating Brexit under Barnier:
https://ec.europa.eu/info/departments/taskforce-article-50-negotiations-united-kingdom_en#leadership
You might find members of the task force faceless bureaucrats without political presence, certainly without Varadkar. Behind the Chinese walls you are bound to find France and Germany. And because of his parties support for the NICE Treaty, Varadkar has no weight to pull in bilateral negotiations with Boris Johnson.
With no mind to favour the UK with anything other than a No Deal the task force will support Varadkar to the hilt in any efforts he makes to preserve a chunk of the UK inside the borders of the EU.
In such a scenario, is there any point in Varadkar meeting with Boris Johnson until reality dawns and the focus on the Dud backstop no longer obscures the proverbial **** hitting the fan!
Sinn Fein is firmly behind the backstop in a supreme irony that pitches a nationalist party in favour of jumping from the frying pan into the fire the backstop would make a 32 county marginalised puppet state inside the EU with less control over its destiny than at present NI has as part of the UK. NI under Sinn Fein will, of course, take ownership under the EU of Ireland’s blooming 220bn external debt! How’s that for nonsense!
Let’s hope the EU and Varadkar come up with a better way of dealing with Brexit other than their current febrile and wacky dud backstop that gets no one nowhere. If what is before your nose is only the backstop and you reject anything other than the backstop, why bother reading this:-)
Better to spend time trying to solve the property crisis, homelessness, collapse of agriculture, HSE failure, 220bn yoyos in external debt, madcap broadband plan, dream of building the most expensive children’s hospital the world has built. Already done!
till again…
Watch Out for Deutsche Bank! Lose the Backstop!
July 26, 2019
Now that Boris Johnson has been elected as Prime Minister of the UK in spite of vehement opposition in parts of the Irish media, its time for us to lose the Backstop. Unfortunately, though firmly rejected in resounding terms successively by losses in the hundreds of votes, both the EU and Leo Varadkar insist on the backstop being a lynchpin of any future deal with the UK.
This makes no sense. One could argue that the EU support for the Irish backstop is support for a trojan horse that will jettison any hope of any prospect of a deal with the UK on Brexit.
Just as there are hardliners in the UK who hope for a No Deal there are hardliners in the EU who hope for same. But is the insistence on the backstop by the EU and Varadkar of any benefit to Ireland in the short or long term?
Clearly, the backstop is unacceptable to the UK. The EU perhaps hope that a No Deal scenario will either force Johnson into a Brexit delay, time for further negotiation, a position that succeeded in delaying Theresa May. But this will not happen with a victorious and Churchillian leader of the UK who is not for turning.
One interesting aspect of the issue of border checks is Boris Johnson’s commitment the UK will not be putting in checks on the border. Hitherto the Irish position insists there cannot be border checks. The solution for this from the Irish perspective is the backstop!
Now that the backstop is no longer fit for purpose will the EU force the Irish government to put in border checks and build the infrastructure on the border arguing this must be done as the Republic of Ireland is now an external land border of the EU.
Perhaps Simon Coveney and Leo Varadkar need to clear up this matter asap.
Varadkar and the EU would like to force a general election in the UK that would dispose of Boris Johnson and Brexit for good.
But with the success of Nigel Farage’s Brexit party in recent elections brought about by the illusory and vacillating failure to deliver Brexit by the May government, its unlikely Johnson given his political commitments to deliver Brexit, would risk going before the British people having failed to deliver. Boris Johnson will deliver Brexit come what May.
It’s likely a General Election would lead to a strong Brexit coalition of Conservatives and Brexit Party members.
Let’s pose the problem in a scientific way using Physics and Math and the laws of motion.
What happens when an unstoppable force meets an immovable object. The paradox is solved by stating its a false paradox, an immovable object(UK) and unstoppable force( EU Backstop), cannot exist at the same time. One has to give.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irresistible_force_paradox
In this case, the EU and Varadkar should give way unless they wish to take the blame for the avoidable worst scenarios that Brexit can lead to. As readers of this blog know, my best scenario is a Brexit with Irexit included.
At some stage a deal will be made with the UK, it’s inefficient, irresponsible and a failure of government not to do it now. This means taking away the dud Backstop and dealing realistically with the new future that’s unfolding with Brexit at its core. If we don’t want Irexit, we better work hard and fast to achieve it by working on a new deal with the UK. Going on holidays for the month of August does not augur well for our preparations.
Deutchbank and what the Irish media would not like to analyze or give any coverage to whatsoever:
It’s Europe’s largest bank. On July 7 it let go 18000 employees. The Over The Counter derivatives market at 88 trillion dollars in 2008 has grown to 684 trillion dollars in 2018.
DB has an exposure of 49 trillion dollars as high and sometimes higher than many of the Wall Street TBTF banks such as Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Merrill Lynch, Cities Group, Bank of America.
Shareholders have lost over 23bn dollars in share value with collapse from approx 20 dollars 2018 to 8 dollars approx today.
The above banks have a large derivatives exposure to DB as they have very close financial connections to the bank.
There is a large unregulated derivatives market and it’s shifting in the hold if DB. Until transparency and regulation is brought by regulators where all derivative transactions occur on open, transparent exchanges, the billion dollar losses by the day being pulled out of the bank, threaten to sink the bank. It’s vast global restructuring programme maybe a fig leaf to disguise imminent collapse.
If DB fails, the global financial system itself may be under threat of financial collapse. Some argue the global economic collapse with what is happening to Deutschbank is already beginning to happen. The global financial system is in an unsustainable bubble with the paradox of share prices continuing to rise while economic data from Europe and worldwide is in a state of continual decline.
This is even before Brexit.
“(1)Democratic presidential contender Sen. Elizabeth Warren warned that the next financial crisis is on its way.
“Warning lights are flashing. Whether it’s this year or next year, the odds of another economic downturn are high — and growing,” Warren wrote in a post on the blogging platform Medium.
The Massachusetts Democrat said that increasing household and corporate debt has left the economy on precarious footing. Citing a top economist, Warren wrote that a failure to raise the debt ceiling in September could be “more catastrophic” than the 2008 collapse of Lehman Brothers.
She also noted weakness in the manufacturing sector, putting the blame for its recent slowdown on President Donald Trump, who has tangled with China over trade. Despite Trump’s pledge to bring back manufacturing jobs, the sector is now in recession, she wrote, and wages for the industry lag the national average.
“The country’s economic foundation is fragile. A single shock could bring it all down. And the Trump Administration’s reckless behavior is increasing the odds of just such a shock,” Warren wrote.
The post is written in the meticulous and citation-heavy style that Warren’s campaign has adopted in its prolific policy roll-outs. The first sentence links to an article written by the fact-checking website PolitiFact, which found in April that Warren’s claim that she predicted the 2008 financial crisis before it happened is truthful.”
Continually beating the drum of Backstop at EU’s behest is not going to get the best deal for Ireland in whatever financial fallout from Brexit that we face!
Best to do a deal with the UK and present it to the EU. Not a EU Brexit negotiating team disaster that will impact us worst.
Congrats to Boris! Well done, dude.
Till again…….
(1)https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/elizabeth-warren-says-the-warning-lights-are-flashing-for-the-next-economic-crash/
What RTE Won’t Tell You! Part 11
June 15, 2019
It might be useful to look at the performance of the Irish economy by comparing it to the performance of the Titanic as it set sail in 1912.
“https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Passengers_of_the_RMS_Titanic”
“The Titanic‘s passengers were divided into three separate classes, determined not only by the price of their ticket, but also by wealth and social class: those travelling in first class, most of them the wealthiest passengers on board, included prominent 
members of the upper class, businessmen, politicians, high-ranking military personnel, industrialists, bankers, entertainers, socialites, and professional athletes. Second-class passengers were middle-class travelers and included professors, authors, clergymen, and tourists. Third-class or steerage passengers were primarily emigrants moving to the United States and Canada.[4]
Likewise in Ireland we have the political class, bankers, heads of the civil service, upper-class members of a business elite, whose investment in the economy is rewarded by power and profit. Here’s a list of the wealthiest hitting pay dirt in 2019 https://www.independent.ie/business/irish/rich-list-2019/ No one would argue that the conditions bringing them the reward of growing wealth and success, they would like to continue.
Second-class passengers in Ireland would be represented by middle class owners of their own homes including business owners who’ve also seen their wealth increase in recent years since the economic downturn of 2008-10 and its financial fallout.
This class would, however, be depleting somewhat due to the pressure of rising property prices but its values would be conservative and largely satisfied with the status quo including its maintenance and perpetuation fueled by growing numbers of jobs and the increase in Foreign Direct Investment ( FDI ).
Third class passengers the most interesting class of all would the old, the sick and infirm, the homeless and jobless. But also the poor and the growing numbers who cannot make ends meet. Many depend on social services for their survival. What we should note are the growing numbers joining this class mostly from the younger cohort in society.
Where does RTE lie in all of this? It lies somewhere between first class and second class largely paid for by taxpayers money in the main its interests taken up in following the agenda laid down for it by the powerful first class. In a nutshell its more concerned with reporting the concerns of the first class than it is with being an advocate for change for the third class. Its modus operandi is largely entertainment keeping people from all sectors of society happy without standing on the toes of any particular interest group.
Let’s look at how this operates politically. Traveling first class are the governing parties led by Fine Gael well paid with large expense accounts running under the aegis of the European Commission and the Irish Central Bank fronted by The Department of Finance. Fuelled by the regulatory nature of this relationship overseeing taxation and spending once those books are balanced, the rest is self-congratulatory hugging and budget spending outgoings.
Here the waters get somewhat choppy as there is decision making over items such as capital spending and the maintenance and development of public services in health and education.
The Books are deceptive in that they combine revenue from 2 distinctive parts of the Irish economy, its productive sector eg agriculture, tourism; and the financial sector.
https://www.rte.ie/news/budget-2019/2018/1009/1001976-budget-corporation-tax/
Corporation tax windfalls are heading to €10bn annually. The financial sector is volatile with euro-wide cuts in CT imposed by new regulatory rules in the pipeline and plans for a new digital tax. However, with such windfall returns that eclipse many sectors of the Irish economy, it’s not hard to realize compared to an economy of Ireland without such stimulus, reliance on what many regard as the real economy of SME’s, agriculture and tourism, is far less than before.
So it is government can try on Mad Max projects such as Broadband up every inaccessible mountain in Ireland at the greatest expense possible, or National Children’s Hospital debacle that entertained us with Brendan O Connor’s soft interview today of An Taoiseach with Leo Varadkar speculating in whimsical mode that really it was impossible to cost the project as there were so many parts to it one didn’t know what to include or exclude.
Listening to this nonsense requires a suspension of disbelief. Does RTE not possess a pocket calculator and a notebook to deliver an A to Z of financial projections with accountability at stake.
The End of The Irish Republic
April 14, 2019
An Taoiseach, Leo Varadkar, in a piece in The Sunday Independent p32, 14.04.19, commemorating 1949, when Ireland became a Republic, is effusive in his association of Ireland of today with this historic event.
“The achievement of 70 years ago was a significant moment in our development as a country, and on Thursday we should be proud to recognise this and salute the Republic”
He mentions “We became a member of the EEC in 1973, and Europe enabled us to develop economically, socially, culturally and politically, helping us to turns our dreams of freedom, peace and prosperity into a reality.”
Nothing could be further from the truth.
The truth is we left the Commonwealth and in 1973 we gave away our sovereignty and our hard fought independence to the new German Franco Empire led by Germany.
‘We got your test results back. Read it and weep.’ Bedside bloopers
During the week we had Brexit Chief negotiator visit Dublin for talks “Barnier’s visit follows the visit of German Chancellor Angela Merkel on Thursday and Varadkar’s meeting with French President Emmanuel Macron on Tuesday.” In effect, however compliant and obedient the Irish puppet government in its membership of the EU, these visits dictate who runs this country.
Its ironic we never saw these “friends” on our shore during Ireland’s economic collapse 2008 2010 when the Irish government was forced to instigate a €64 billion bank bailout from the troika at which even the IMF was horrified at the terms imposed on Ireland by its so-called friend in the EU.
(1)https://www.thejournal.ie/barnier-dublin-visit-brexit-talks-4579444-Apr2019/
Behind the commemorative pageantry next week our membership of the EEC belies an erosion of Republican sovereignty beginning with economic collapse that has steadily eroded our freedoms economically and politically. Some argue our governing parties and their politicians have so little power left that it’s little more helpless inertia.
Our economic success is often touted as reliant on FDI and there is much truth in this. Corporation tax is as oil to the Saudi’s for Ireland. Arguments that FDI would take flight from Ireland if we left the EEC given the large investment in this country by FDI are spurious. FDI is also global exporting worldwide rather than merely to the EEC.
Looking at Ireland through the Republican Varadkar lens is a bit light looking at the ‘Republican’ status of one of the satellite states of the the previous USSR.
Let’s look at our supposed Freedoms: Organs of our state are responsible for providing the health and education needs of our people. Currently these vital organs are in a state of shutdown.
Affordability in Dublin has reached levels of 9 times the average industrial wage for young individuals and families(1) There is no central database requiring purchasers to declare themselves as purchasers and indicate the source of funding.
Its believed developers including vulture funds and large institutional funds from the FDI sector are using financial armoury to outbid local bidders. There is no tax on this type of investment from abroad as in other jurisdictions eg Vancouver, Montreal imposition of 20% tax on foreign investment funding from China.
But the market is even more petrified than the above facts can explain.
”
(3)High levels of social housing delivery were possible in the 1950’s because the funding method spread out the costs of provision and kept them affordable for government. At this time social housing was funded by very long-term loans, which were repaid using a mix of central government subsidies, tenants’ rents and the proceeds of domestic rates.
This funding model collapsed when domestic rates were abolished in 1978 and after that the exchequer paid for social house building in lump-sum grants. The latter arrangement was less affordable because the costs of provision were paid up front rather than spread out over a long period, which helps to explain why insufficient numbers of social houses were built even during the Celtic Tiger period.
”
So why can’t our government exercise its “Republican” freedom to obtain long-term grants and “very long-term loans, which were repaid using a mix of central government subsidies, tenants’ rents and the proceeds of domestic rates.”
The reason is we are no longer a Republic since our joining of the EEC in 1973. Investment in infrastructure such as housing is governed by European rules. European rules provide for investment in terms of Fiscal Space. Fiscal Space is the gap between what comes in and what it spends. This represents approx 0.5% of our GDP. No more. Arguably countries such as Germany and France can flout such rules.
Given our national emergency with 13000 homeless perhaps double this if those forced to live at home with their parents are counted, you would think there would be national debate on the question of putting pressure on European Central Bank rules to solve our emergency. There is none.
Perhaps the most telling aspect of our pretense at Republican Freedoms is the perilous state of our banking system. If large-scale development of Social Housing were undertaken by this government, there would be a collapse in-house prices to affordable levels. Not a bad thing, or so you might think. However this could preempt a further collapse of our banking system leading to a cascade of investors getting out of the market with sell-offs and negative equity and eventual collapse of our banks once again.
‘Ok…one of us is having the mother of all hallucinations…’
Thus we have our main political parties overseeing the cocooning of our economy “a silky case spun by the larvae of many insects for protection as pupae” There are many insects protected and cocooned under our present false economy. Many TD’s are heavily invested in our property market that is extracting lifeblood out of out economy.
While the revenues from Corporation Tax pour in falsely contributing to growth figures hiding the true state of our economy, a little investigation and research shows the true state of our economy under the lies told in mainstream media.
Rental/lease commercial costs, legal costs (largest in Europe in some areas), hoovering up of finance to spend on mortgage and loan repayments, Insurance costs, lack of capital spending on public services and utilities, under investment in health and education sacrificed on the altar of support for the property private sector under the shadow of banking, under the dominion of Fiscal Space controlled from German and French political influence.
Our politicians instead play out a pageant of Republican Freedom. The reality is dominion status in an EEC growing increasingly more uncompetitive in the world market where Asia and Africa influence and prosperity is growing instead of declining as it is in the EEC.
Brexiteers reading this be warned what has happened to this country and to its economic prospects. Look at our homeless that is becoming Stalinesque on its damage to young and old. Look at our national emergency in health care with waiting lists rising to incomprehensible levels of absurdity. Observe the flight of doctors, GP’s and healthcare professionals leaving this country. Observe the cuts in pay rates across the board in Public Services especially in education leading to the flight of teachers leaving our country.
Observe the absence of accountability with squandered billions on our national Children’s Hospital and note that disappearing accountability is a hallmark of a dictatorship where the people have no say and propaganda rewrites history. Its ironic Brexiteers have so much in common with Irish nationalists of the late nineteenth and early twentieth century in their search for freedom.
Remaining in the EU could bring worse on your country. You may not have the oil of FDI to mask, cocoon and hide the underlying damage to your economy brought about by economic collapse, “bailout”, austerity under the German/Franco dominion of the EU, and political governance that is remarkable only for its neglect and willful incompetence.
When Leo Varadkar visits Tusk and Barniere during talks over Brexit, perhaps he should have a read of Watership Down by Richard Adams on his way across in the government jet
“They meet a rabbit named Cowslip, who invites them to join his warren. At first Hazel’s group are relieved to finally be able to sleep and feed well – except for Fiver, who senses only death there. When Bigwig is nearly killed in a snare, the group realize that the new warren is managed by a farmer who protects and feeds the rabbits, but also harvests a number of them for their meat and skins. The residents of the new warren are simply using Hazel and the others to increase their own odds of survival.”
We joined the EU in 1973 claiming it would bring economic stability, instead it brought near total economic collapse in 2008-2010, its not our true home, Barniere and Tusk in present negotiations are using Varadkar and the others to increase the odds of their own survival.
When the time comes, Ireland will be sacrificed by the EEC in spite of any illusory freedoms of a Republican kind that Varadkar may dream about. In daylight such dreams become a mirage and an Easter pageant that means 13000 homeless are sacrificed on a daily basis.
Till again….
2. https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/government-takes-in-near-record-2- 7bn-in- corporation-tax-in-november-1.3720002
(3) https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/letters/social-housing-ideology-and-economics-1.2401968
Easy Brexit!
March 31, 2019
Well it’s finally here and so-called Hard Brexit looms. Europhiles and anti Brexiteers prophecying disaster and apocalyse have become endemic. The old order of the EU is broken and to be replaced with chaotic shambles and disorder. Nah the UK will do very well out of leaving the European Economic Union.
“That’s Laura’s Susanne Bartsch imitation. I guess it’s time for us to go.”
The German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Emmanuel Macron, President of France, are to descend on Ireland next week for urgent discussions with Leo Varadkar, Taoiseach. The stakes are high.
Leo’s preparations for a hard Brexit will be put under the spotlight. He has consistently refused to talk of such preparations convinced that Theresa May’s backstop deal negotiated with the EU over nearly three years would be acceptable to the UK parliament.
Whether out of self-delusion, arrogance, conceit, poor judgment or political naivete and inexperience Varadkar and his European colleagues leading the Brexit negotiations have set up sail under a Brexit deal with a leader of the UK: “Theresa May has suffered 22 defeats in the House of Commons, the biggest of which was by a margin of 230 votes on her Withdrawal Agreement on Britain leaving the EU, the biggest loss in UK Parliamentary history.” that has been rejected outright by politicians on every side of the political divide in the UK.
Such a resounding defeat raises serious questions about the credibility of negotiations led by the authors of such a resound defeat. Arguably the Brexit back stop deal played into the hands of Brexiteers easily persuaded by the view the deal was not only worse than what the the UK had now but it was a charter for the breakup of the UK.
The simple way of looking at this is that the EU and the UK had their chance to sell a deal to the UK parliamentary representatives of the people. They failed to sell an acceptable deal however poorly conceived. The consequence is the UK leaves without a deal.
There are many forces at work to try to undermine the democratic freedom and will of the British people such as efforts made to postpone the pretend and extend negotiations indefinitely with no guarantee of any deal ever. Or a second or more referenda, or as John Major would prefer, not leaving at all, a ‘pretend leave’ with the UK staying in the customs union.
Delivering a huge mandate against totalitarian denial of democratic freedoms such as repeated referenda disregarding the will of the people:
The Commons Speaker, John Bercow,
(1)”Bercow has said the government cannot bring the meaningful vote back to parliament again unless there has been substantial change to the Brexit deal. He made the announcement in a surprise statement to MPs, giving Downing Street no advance warning. (See 4.17pm.) Crucially, in response to a question from Labour’s Hilary Benn, Bercow also suggested that the EU would have to change what it has agreed with the UK for a further vote to be allowed. (See4.08pm.) He said a change would have to be “not different in terms of wording, but different in terms of substance”. But he also stressed that he would consider any proposition on its merits, and that what he was saying today did not mark his final word on the matter.”
(1)https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2019/mar/18/brexit-latest-news-theresa-may-vote-deal-boris-johnson-tells-may-to-try-again-to-get-eu-to-change-backstop-politics-live
Its time after all the debates and efforts to pave the way for controlled withdrawal of the UK from the EU to realise such efforts on behalf of all have not been wasted. We have seen democracy in action. After all have had their say its time for parliament to give to the UK people what they voted for, withdrawal from the EU including the EU customs Union.
The no-deal scenario must be triggered at midnight April 12. There is no possibility a better deal can come from the EU. Nor is there possibility a better deal would be available if deferred indefinitely. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XjbM4NmjLcA
Such an outcome of hard Brexit was flagged repeatedly in this blog. There is no easy way to disentangle economic relationships going back over 40yrs. This will demand ingenuity, adaptation and change and some sacrifice on all concerned.
The struggle will be worth it and will go a long way to counteract an EU growing evermore remote from the people of Europe in economic ties benefiting rich corporations and banks in favour of austerity and cutbacks in public services and a growing divide into totalitarianism where even politicians, never mind the people, increasingly, have no say.
The arrival of Merkel and Macron this week to inspect Irish border preparations is a humiliation for the Irish government and a classic demonstration of who really holds the reins in Europe. Donal Tusk in the style of a foreign dictator wishes the British people to revoke the Article 50 mandate
Who voted for him? How dare he try to interfere and undermine the democratic will of the UK people. Did you get to vote for him, no you didn’t! Angela Merkel supported him. Enough said.
…till again
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