Ending Wars!
February 26, 2024
We were led to believe rearming the Ukraine to the level it has been currently funded would lead to the expulsion of Russian troops from the Ukraine and the defeat of Putin forces. In a significant turnaround, Russia is now on the offensive and Ukrainian forces are in retreat.
Its time to call a halt to the carnage and the huge cost of war in civilian and loss of life on the battlefield. Its time to negotiate a new treaty:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donbas
” Minsk Protocol, this was signed on 5 September 2014.[70] As this failed to stop the fighting, another agreement, called Minsk II was signed on 12 February 2015.[71] This agreement called for the eventual reintegration of the Donbas republics into Ukraine, with a level of autonomy.[71] The aim of the Russian intervention in the Donbas was to establish pro-Russian governments that, upon reincorporation into Ukraine, would facilitate Russian interference in Ukrainian politics.[72] The Minsk agreements were thus highly favourable to the Russian side, as their implementation would accomplish these goals.[73]”
The largely pro Russian and Russian speaking population with large ethnic origins from inside Russia itself has made this region a hotbed of pro Russian and pro Ukrainian Independence conflict. Both East and West have stoked the fires of conflict with Russia fearing NATO and missile threat from this region pointed at Russia and vice versa.
Its time to stabilise this region bringing peace to both sides. Let a treaty guarantee borders allowing Pro Ukrainian citizens of the Dombas to leave the region if they so wish while allowing pro Russian citizens to live there in safety and peace. Donetsk, largest city on the Dombas has been under attack virtually since 2014 in a silent and hidden war that has gripped the Dombas since 2014.
War mongerers in the West would seek to continue to pour billions into arms sales to Ukraine just as the same war mongering hawks supported the Vietnam War to continue it indefinitely.
Its clear the US Congress just as they stopped the Vietnam War, can block the funding that will end the conflict in the Ukraine.
The notion that Russia has any further goals in mind other than the annexation of the pro Russian Dombas region, is nonsense. If true, it would guarantee Putin’s defeat amounting to an act of self destruction for Russia.
Dombas has been the cause of dispute between Ukraine and Russia. Allowing Russia to control this region in return for a guaranteed peace for Ukraine, Dombas and Russia would bring about a peace the world needs right now.
The alternative is that US will beggar itself funding a war it cannot win, costing untold numbers of lives, massive destruction and damage to countries even beyond the borders of this conflict.
Meanwhile, the US acting like a pariah state stands alone with Israel against the rest of the world refusing to demand immediate ceasefire in Gaza that would save countless numbers of lives of Palestinians with Israeli forces currently aiming to continue its genocide in Rafah.
Extraordinary interventions by Saudi Arabia and China typically show a united front against this terrible and criminal conflict.
Ironically, the credibility of not only the US is at stake, but the very credibility of the UN itself as a force for peace in the world.
What the UN should be debating is the expulsion of the US and Russia from the UN as they are proven to violate the basics tenets of the UN
https://legal.un.org/repertory/art2.shtml
“The Organization and its Members, in pursuit of the Purposes stated in Article 1, shall act in accordance with the following Principles.
1. The Organization is based on the principle of the sovereign equality of all its Members.
2. All Members, in order to ensure to all of them the rights and benefits resulting from membership, shall fulfil in good faith the obligations assumed by them in accordance with the present Charter.
3. All Members shall settle their international disputes by peaceful means in such a manner that international peace and security, and justice, are not endangered.
4. All Members shall refrain in their international relations from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any state, or in any other manner inconsistent with the Purposes of the United Nations.
5. All Members shall give the United Nations every assistance in any action it takes in accordance with the present Charter, and shall refrain from giving assistance to any state against which the United Nations is taking preventive or enforcement action.
6. [See separate study]
7. [See separate study]”
The right to VETO should be removed from the UN in favour of majority rule.
Its beyond the time we should see UN troops sent by member countries, sending in troops to defend the people of Palestine against annexation and genocide by Israel.
The idea that Israel can destroy Hamas by the annexation of Gaza and the death of circa 30,000 innocent Palestinians, is beyond belief.
Such inhumanity will only inflame Hamas into a force that draws deadly energy from such inhumanity.
Irish history has taught this lesson. Not only is Israel waging a war against Gaza and Hamas, it is waging war against itself.
Till again….
`Worst FF Party We’ve Ever Had…
May 16, 2021
Its as if FG, FF and NAMA’s housing policy had been hidden away from us in a fog, but in previous weeks its become apparent the vulture funds hidden in the fog we’ve realised are right outside our door now.
Since the foundation of the state the present FF party is the worst we’ve ever had. Its joined now at the hip with Fine Gael and its impossible to disentangle the policy of FF from that of FG.
Lets examine some reasons why this is true and how we are in the midst of our housing debacle led by the nose with one of the worst leaders of FF, Michael Martin TD, to have ever sat in Dail Eireann. To be fair to him overall FF is virtually silent and there does not appear to be any contenders as Taoiseach to choose from from either FG or FF. We are up the creek without a paddle and some of us sense the waterfall.
Its not that we can blame the debacle on coalition with FG though we should be worried at Simon Harris excited panegyric praise of Darragh O Brien’s recently unveiled policy on housing as “exciting”. Its more to do with a leaden lethargic unquestioning compliance with a policy that has stoked the problems we have today. Speculation in the property market and tax breaks for landlords to buy a second, or third, or fourth home to rent out has been a staple of government policy. A large proportion of elected politicians are paid up members of the rentier landlord class.
Fueled by the banks who pressed cheap EU backed loans on all and sundry the whole edifice fell in 2010. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Post-2008_Irish_economic_downturn
“With the banks “guaranteed”,[11] and the National Asset Management Agency (NAMA) established[12] on the evening of 21 November 2010, then Taoiseach Brian Cowen confirmed on live television that the EU/ECB/IMF troika would be involving itself in Ireland’s financial affairs. “
Fed by greed and failed housing policies building at its worst ghost estates on flood planes, the NAMA bad bank came to the rescue selling off billions in bad loans and land banks with huge discounts to vulture funds and financial institutions.
Government refused to institute rent caps and regulate housing supply by building affordable homes. Its view was the market would regulate itself.
Government introduced the Real Estate Investor Tax (REIT) break in 2012. This means the funds and REITs buying up homes pay little if any tax on profits made. Added to this was government policy to reduce taxation and allow the private sector to take over the housing market.
IT used taxpayers money incredibly to stoke the private housing sector. “From 2014 onwards the Government also changed from building social housing to getting social housing through paying the rent to landlords (like the HAP scheme), or long term leasing.(1)” Its policy included the purchase of dwellings from private developers. This used taxpayer money to push up the cost of housing in competition with first time buyers.
“Tomorrow, the Government could direct NAMA to deliver 70,000 completely affordable units on its land – providing the entire housing supply needed for the country for the next three years. NAMA has 7000 units construction-ready, 8600 in planning, and 10000 in pre-planning. That’s an entire year’s supply of the country’s housing need. It still owns 747 hectares of residential development land – enough for 75,000 dwellings.(1)”
Covid has made our housing situation worse. Alone of just about every other country in the world, FF and FG stopped construction during our housing emergency. In the face of opposition from the construction sector with no evidence it was a source of Covid but rather could manage defence against Covid very well, it was shut down:
“The Irish government called a halt to all non-essential construction from 6pm Friday, 8 January in response to soaring number of Covid-19 cases in the country.
The shutdown took effect as the government logged a record 8,248 new cases on that day.
Ahead of the shutdown last week, Ireland’s Construction Industry Federation (CIF) suggested the measure wasn’t necessary because the industry was operating safely and because the infection rate among Ireland’s 147,000 construction workers was “considerably below the population average at all times”.”(2)
Its not that FF policy is failing is that it is succeeding to suffocate any hopes of democratic roll-out of housing in Ireland. Instead of delegating to local councils the funding required to bring forward housing developments on a nationwide basis, its proposing to stifle and choke local democracy made subservient to a national land grab that will add further fuel to mismanagement, speculation in the private sector and a vast obstacle that will slowdown any democratic enterprise from below.
https://www.fiannafail.ie/minister-obrien-publishes-land-development-agency-bill-2021/
Varadkar, Michael Martin or Darragh O Brien will over the course of the interview outline the following information:
Minister O’Brien:
“I am delighted to have secured such a significant increase for 2021. Today’s budget demonstrates that this government are truly committed to tackling homelessness, increasing the number of new build social houses as well providing more affordable homes to those trying to get on the housing ladder. This budget is the very definition of a ‘Housing for All’ budget. Importantly, this budget has also seen a large increase in funding for Irish Water so that they can provide critical infrastructure which has knock-on effects on our supply of housing. We have also secured further increases in the areas of Planning, Local Government and Heritage as well as vital access to ring-fenced COVID-19 funding.””
“Minister for Housing, Local Government and Heritage, Darragh O’Brien TD, Minister of State with responsibility for Local Government and Planning, Peter Burke TD, and Minister of State for Heritage and Electoral Reform Malcolm Noonan have today (13 October) announced a budget package for 2021 of over five billion euro.
Key spending areas include:
- €3.3 billion spend in housing – 24% increase on 2020 and highest investment in housing by any Government in a single year
- social housing needs of over 28,500 additional households to be met in 2021
- 12,750 new homes will be added to the available supply of social housing through build, acquisition and long-term leasing
- support for local authorities and Approved Housing Bodies to deliver 9,500 new build homes in 2021
- range of affordability measures including €110 million for a new Affordable Purchase Shared Equity Scheme for first time buyers and a new cost rental model
- €218 million (€166 million in budget 2020) to ensure those experiencing homelessness are supported and helped to successfully exit homelessness. (6,000 exits from homelessness estimated for 2021)
- €1.3 billion investment in water services
- €65 million will facilitate energy efficiency improvements to social housing homes
- €60 million to adapt the homes of up to 10,700 older people and people with a disability
- increase funding to €21 million for the Residential Tenancies Board and local authority rental inspections and to implement reforms for the short-term letting sector
- €150 million for the Urban Regeneration and Development Fund (URDF)
- €192 million contribution to the Local Government Fund
- heritage funding for 2021 will amount to €95.5 million – an increase of 51% on this year
- access to additional central COVID-19 funding as required in 2021″
Lets park the lies eg “social housing needs of over 28,500 additional households to be met in 2021”
Let’s park the deceitful deception in closing down construction during Covid and the failure to realise the claims and promises made above. A panegyric is a published text or speech in praise of someone or something. Let’s focus on the RTE interview panegyric.
There is a growing public frustration with RTE’s failure to tackle politicians on the housing issue. Our interviewee politician well rehearsed will guide the interviewer through the above bullet points and some more for good measure. At the end of the interview, expect a feeling of wholesome commitment over the next 4 years they hope to remain in office, to alongside what they’ve already committed to above, to further engage proactively with the housing emergency to further improve work in this area.
What RTE will not ask is why only “€3.3 billion spend in housing”, why not €15 billion on housing distributed on a proportionality basis to Local Authorities across the country mandated to build in the short term the total supply reckoned to be 33000 units per year across the country in a similar fashion to how the suburbs were built in Dublin and elsewhere in the 1950’s.
Instead of which we have the cuckoo trickle down listed above most of which is already acknowledged as false promise.
RTE will not venture into the area of macro economics and Central Bank lending, the issue of bonds by the European Central Bank.
How come the Government can borrow for Covid but cannot borrow in order to house its people?
“Euro-zone debt agencies will likely issue more longer-maturity bonds in 2021 as they look to lock in lower borrowing costs for longer and a lot of sales may be conducted through banks, according to strategists. Such offerings, known as syndications, are more expensive than auctions, but they allow governments to raise very large sums quickly while diversifying their investor base.(3)”
As Dr Hearne says “The current planned affordable and cost rental homes are drops in the ocean in comparison to the scale of what is required.”
He also is of the view “But the truth is the investor purchase of housing in Ireland on a major scale is actually Government policy and has been for the last decade. “
The truth is the trickle down propaganda from RTE and FF and FG is designed to keep land lords, investment and vulture funds in profit without rocking the boat too much.
When RTE interview Irish politicians on the housing emergency, watch out for the Fog bringing homelessness and deprivation to the children of Ireland.
till again….
(1)
(2)
https://www.globalconstructionreview.com/news/ireland-shuts-down-construction-covid-cases-rise/
(3)
Back (Get them back in EU) Stop (them leaving the EU)!
October 2, 2019
Clearly the backstop is being used like Thor’s hammer by both Remainers and the Irish government to prevent Britain leaving the EU on October 31st
Its a bit like Schrodingers Cat with the cat being both alive and dead at the same time but clearly the fact that the UK are leaving the EU means there has to be a border somewhere (see last blog Brexit without border). UK can’t leave the EU without a border around NI. Backstop in its purist form means NI stays within the Customs Union. Scant regard for the democratic will of the UK in its referendum.
If the same arguments however specious were used against our own referenda to stay in Europe although we voted against the EU for Lisbon and Nice, we should be arguing that our refusal to vote against the EU was misinformed. Whichever way you look at it, its a denial of democracy to deny the will of the electorate spoken in referenda.
When it comes to the EU we enter into the world of contradictions and Schrodinger cats nothing to do with Quantum Mechanics simply absurdity in plain sight. I’m not referring to Irelan’s ill-omened love affair with the EU being ignored and screwed after our financial collapse( financial collapse also a contradiction in that we joined up to ensure stability).
I’m not referring to the fact of dissolution of political power in Ireland after the arrival of the troike(they’re still here) with terms such as Fiscal Space code for not investing in Ireland’s infrastructure nor investing in housing as investment might hurt the pockets of the rich including the banks. Price falls to affordability may trigger negative equity sell-offs hurting the banks and triggering another crisis as if we’re not already in the middle of one.
It’s the gradual leeching of power away from a once sovereign state to invisible and shadowy bankers and bureaucrats ‘elected’ to the EU.
It’s also the little absurdities such as Ireland’s Fine Gael newly elected Trade Commissioner for the EU Phil Hogan former environment commissioner.
On Mercosur trade deal with South American countries, ” Mr Hogan said he “very much” understands “the concerns of agriculture”.
“But when you look at the cumulative impact in what we have achieved throughout the world in trade deals, we have a very positive outcome overall.””
That little reductio ad absurdum represented in the fact that without support to compensate for Mercusor Ireland’s agriculture industry has been dealt a severe blow beneath the waterline. Hogan I guess is being compensated by the promotion.
Perhaps he’s being promoted on foot of the disastrous emigration of the majority of doctors and specialists from our universities contributing to the worsening of our health service’s dive for the bottom. That maybe someone else?
Let’s look at what’s happening in Europe overall:
https://www.politico.com/news/2019/10/02/trump-eu-tariffs-020272 Trumo has just won a WTO judgment against the EU allowing him to impose tariffs up to 7.5bn dollars annually against state support for Airbus. Unlike the Argentinian Peso’s fall against the dollar with growth in the Argentinian economy building on a philosophy of ‘Build, Build, build’ the euro is stagnating and falling against the dollar currently 1.10 against the dollar, expect it to fall further. Latin American style.
Virtually no houses being built in Ireland, the few that are, are for the rich. #there are currently no infrastructure projects if you leave out the vast overspend on the National Children’s Hospital. Politics has become administration of a satellite state of the EU post troika. Governing parties take turns at it.
Currently the European Central Bank is stooping to negative interest rates to try to stimulate the euro. Well that’s the official line. Unofficially as pointed out by Ellen Browne “The Disaster of Negative Interest Rates” quoting
“Negative yields have been another blow for the European and Japanese banks hobbling from crisis to crisis, their shares wobbling along multi-decade lows. Negative yields are the final blow for pension and retirement systems. Negative yields distort the pricing of risk, and therefore distort the cost of capital and lead to business decisions that would otherwise be idiotic waste and malinvestment. This is an issue that is already playing out with low interest rates – such as share buybacks funded with borrowed money – and it gets a lot worse with negative interest rates.”
” negative interest rates as follow-up and addition to massive QE were effective in keeping the Eurozone glued together because they allowed countries to stay afloat that cannot, but would need to, print their own money to stay afloat. They did so by making funding plentiful and nearly free, or free, or more than free.
This includes Italian government debt, which has a negative yield through three-year maturities. The Italian 10-year yield is only 0.9%, rather than 7% or 8%, as it was during the Debt Crisis, when Italy was approaching a default, like Greece had already done. The ECB’s latest rate cut, minuscule and controversial as it was, was designed to help out Italy further so it wouldn’t have to abandon the euro and break out of the Eurozone.”
That’s even before the UK leave the EU. A currency on life support. If the UK leaves will there be a domino effect led by Italy if not Germany herself?
Manwhile as predicted by this Blog Boris Johnson has unveiled his Irish Sea compromise replacement for Brexit. Crucially the DUP and Unionists support it:
https://www.ft.com/content/a507c8b4-b412-3563-9647-9ab3ca0facff
The EU and Ireland will entertain no alternative to the absurd backstop.
It looks like we all need to get ready for Brexit.
Nice one Boris, mulling over your alternative to the backstop will be short and sweet. Not worth spending much time deliberating over it, it was already dead for the EU Barnier team and the Irish cabinet, before it was conceived.
Its not looking good for the EU with property speculation and tariffs sucking the heat out of the US economy never mind the EU economy, finally manufacturing output in the US dropping towards the floor. Brexit knocking on the door.
Till again….
Alternative to the Dud Backstop!
August 29, 2019
Its anti democratic to ignore the wishes of the British people who’ve voted many times against the backstop. Remainers hope that the coming weeks will show to Leavers there’s no alternative to the backstop. The prospect of a No Deal with positions getting more and more entrenched is increasing by the day.
Remainers demand of Leavers an alternative to the backstop. Let me propose an alternative to the backstop:
A New Deal from both the UK and the EU on the Irish question could be solved along the following lines:
There need be no hard border in Ireland. Trade between the UK and Ireland could continue on similar lines to trade today.
The New Deal between the UK and Ireland would need an active and strong participation from the Irish government. It would have to be an equal partner in a Task Force led by negotiators from the EU Task Force on Brexit, The UK Task Force on Brexit and a new Irish Task Force on Brexit.
The solution to the backstop removes a hard border between NI and Republic of Ireland/EU and places it outside Ireland in the EU of mainland Europe.
For this to work Ireland would operate as a Commonwealth satellite state of the UK and continue as a satellite state within the EU.
The consequence of this would mean that trade in Ireland would operate as part of the UK sterling area subject to its customs, tariffs and regulations as they develop between the UK and the EU hopefully as part of a new trade agreement.
Borders in Europe would treat Ireland for trade purposes as part of the UK. Goods sold in Ireland would be those distributed throughout the UK subject to similar tax and trade tariffs imposed by the UK.
Goods exported from Ireland would be treated the same as goods exported from the UK subject to border checking, tariffs and EU custom regulations.
But Ireland is a satellite state of the EU, how would that work? How can Ireland remain part of the single market?
Most of our trade is with the EU and through MNC’s global not necessarily to Europe alone. € 30 bn is with the US. We’ve growing trade links with the rest of the world. €2.3bn of NI exports are to ROI. While Ireland currently exports €13bn to the UK Ireland currently exports 4 times that to the EU.
But when it comes to indigenous industries such as agriculture: “Total value of agri-food exports in 2017 was almost €13.6 billion – 38% (€5.2 billion) went to UK”
https://www.agriculture.gov.ie/brexit/tradeandstatistics/
The solution to the backstop is to treat Ireland as a Special Case that requires a unique solution to the difficulties Brexit poses for both the UK and Ireland.
So let’s treat Ireland a special case and How Would We Do That?
We need to set up a Special Customs Channel for matters ROI related. After all what is being proposed is that there be no hard border on the island of Ireland, Ireland becomes part of the UK trading area, Ireland continues to be part of the Single Market EU Trading area.
It would be up to the task force to deliver a deal with the detail required to make this work. Let’s call the Task Force, Task Force Blue to take an arbitrary color coding.
‘Task Force Blue’ would set about a Blue customs regime. People with Irish passports travelling to the UK or to Europe would have a separate Blue channel with agreed, negotiated protocols as much as possible assisting in free movement of Irish people moving between the EU and UK.
This would ensure Ireland would not be a gateway for people emigrating to the UK seeking to avoid UK customs control. The less obtuse and invasive such border presence would be, the better.
As there would be no border between NI and ROI the Blue Channel would be checks taken at points of disembarkation and embarkation between the EU and ROI and the rest of the world.
So how would export/import of goods be regulated and monitored?
As already stated ROI would for tariff reasons be taken as part of the UK. However, with electronic controls and expertise a separate documentation Blue Customs channel would reimburse tariffs taken at point of entry to Irish importers. similarly for exports into the EU, tariffs could be taken at point of entry or prepaid, or taken later with the help of electronic management systems that would operate Blue documentation.
Again goods travelling from Ireland to EU would travel through a Blue channel. This would be electronically built for speed. Companies would register for Blue documentation that granted would allow for speedy pass through Blue customs. Perhaps tariffs would require to be prepaid, if so Blue documentation would ensure refund.
It should not be beyond the expertise of a joint EU, UK and ROI Task Force to work out a Blue Customs Channel that would work for all concerned.
It would neutralise the need for a hard border in Ireland and would compliment the Good Friday Agreement.
This would require expertise, ingenuity and detailed supervision and follow up to ensure fair enforcement and avoidance of potential abuse of documentation and customs regulation. The Blue customs Channel would respect and preserve the integrity of the EU Single Market and the UK customs and trade area.
The goal would be to avoid tariffs imposed on Irish goods by both the EU and the UK recognising the Special Case of ROI and the support it needs to avoid a hard border in Ireland with ROI remaining a satellite state of the EU.
Simply stated the Blue channel would treat Ireland as both part of the UK trading block and also part of the Single Market. Let’s say its a Quantum solution based on Quantum Mechanics where things are and are not at the same time.
An Irish exporter to the EU, would pay a tariff imposed on UK goods, with Orange documentation could be reimbursed that payment because ROI remains part of the single market.
The above Blue Channel requires enterprise, ingenuity, creativity and a certain amount of give on all sides to make it work. It will work.
The alternative is the Dud backstop and a No Deal Brexit. Don’t tell me Brexiteers and Irexiteers like yours truly are unable to produce an alternative to the Dud Backstop!
The Dud backstop was subject of last blog reproduced here if you’d like to read it:
till again…
Watch Out for Deutsche Bank! Lose the Backstop!
July 26, 2019
Now that Boris Johnson has been elected as Prime Minister of the UK in spite of vehement opposition in parts of the Irish media, its time for us to lose the Backstop. Unfortunately, though firmly rejected in resounding terms successively by losses in the hundreds of votes, both the EU and Leo Varadkar insist on the backstop being a lynchpin of any future deal with the UK.
This makes no sense. One could argue that the EU support for the Irish backstop is support for a trojan horse that will jettison any hope of any prospect of a deal with the UK on Brexit.
Just as there are hardliners in the UK who hope for a No Deal there are hardliners in the EU who hope for same. But is the insistence on the backstop by the EU and Varadkar of any benefit to Ireland in the short or long term?
Clearly, the backstop is unacceptable to the UK. The EU perhaps hope that a No Deal scenario will either force Johnson into a Brexit delay, time for further negotiation, a position that succeeded in delaying Theresa May. But this will not happen with a victorious and Churchillian leader of the UK who is not for turning.
One interesting aspect of the issue of border checks is Boris Johnson’s commitment the UK will not be putting in checks on the border. Hitherto the Irish position insists there cannot be border checks. The solution for this from the Irish perspective is the backstop!
Now that the backstop is no longer fit for purpose will the EU force the Irish government to put in border checks and build the infrastructure on the border arguing this must be done as the Republic of Ireland is now an external land border of the EU.
Perhaps Simon Coveney and Leo Varadkar need to clear up this matter asap.
Varadkar and the EU would like to force a general election in the UK that would dispose of Boris Johnson and Brexit for good.
But with the success of Nigel Farage’s Brexit party in recent elections brought about by the illusory and vacillating failure to deliver Brexit by the May government, its unlikely Johnson given his political commitments to deliver Brexit, would risk going before the British people having failed to deliver. Boris Johnson will deliver Brexit come what May.
It’s likely a General Election would lead to a strong Brexit coalition of Conservatives and Brexit Party members.
Let’s pose the problem in a scientific way using Physics and Math and the laws of motion.
What happens when an unstoppable force meets an immovable object. The paradox is solved by stating its a false paradox, an immovable object(UK) and unstoppable force( EU Backstop), cannot exist at the same time. One has to give.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irresistible_force_paradox
In this case, the EU and Varadkar should give way unless they wish to take the blame for the avoidable worst scenarios that Brexit can lead to. As readers of this blog know, my best scenario is a Brexit with Irexit included.
At some stage a deal will be made with the UK, it’s inefficient, irresponsible and a failure of government not to do it now. This means taking away the dud Backstop and dealing realistically with the new future that’s unfolding with Brexit at its core. If we don’t want Irexit, we better work hard and fast to achieve it by working on a new deal with the UK. Going on holidays for the month of August does not augur well for our preparations.
Deutchbank and what the Irish media would not like to analyze or give any coverage to whatsoever:
It’s Europe’s largest bank. On July 7 it let go 18000 employees. The Over The Counter derivatives market at 88 trillion dollars in 2008 has grown to 684 trillion dollars in 2018.
DB has an exposure of 49 trillion dollars as high and sometimes higher than many of the Wall Street TBTF banks such as Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Merrill Lynch, Cities Group, Bank of America.
Shareholders have lost over 23bn dollars in share value with collapse from approx 20 dollars 2018 to 8 dollars approx today.
The above banks have a large derivatives exposure to DB as they have very close financial connections to the bank.
There is a large unregulated derivatives market and it’s shifting in the hold if DB. Until transparency and regulation is brought by regulators where all derivative transactions occur on open, transparent exchanges, the billion dollar losses by the day being pulled out of the bank, threaten to sink the bank. It’s vast global restructuring programme maybe a fig leaf to disguise imminent collapse.
If DB fails, the global financial system itself may be under threat of financial collapse. Some argue the global economic collapse with what is happening to Deutschbank is already beginning to happen. The global financial system is in an unsustainable bubble with the paradox of share prices continuing to rise while economic data from Europe and worldwide is in a state of continual decline.
This is even before Brexit.
“(1)Democratic presidential contender Sen. Elizabeth Warren warned that the next financial crisis is on its way.
“Warning lights are flashing. Whether it’s this year or next year, the odds of another economic downturn are high — and growing,” Warren wrote in a post on the blogging platform Medium.
The Massachusetts Democrat said that increasing household and corporate debt has left the economy on precarious footing. Citing a top economist, Warren wrote that a failure to raise the debt ceiling in September could be “more catastrophic” than the 2008 collapse of Lehman Brothers.
She also noted weakness in the manufacturing sector, putting the blame for its recent slowdown on President Donald Trump, who has tangled with China over trade. Despite Trump’s pledge to bring back manufacturing jobs, the sector is now in recession, she wrote, and wages for the industry lag the national average.
“The country’s economic foundation is fragile. A single shock could bring it all down. And the Trump Administration’s reckless behavior is increasing the odds of just such a shock,” Warren wrote.
The post is written in the meticulous and citation-heavy style that Warren’s campaign has adopted in its prolific policy roll-outs. The first sentence links to an article written by the fact-checking website PolitiFact, which found in April that Warren’s claim that she predicted the 2008 financial crisis before it happened is truthful.”
Continually beating the drum of Backstop at EU’s behest is not going to get the best deal for Ireland in whatever financial fallout from Brexit that we face!
Best to do a deal with the UK and present it to the EU. Not a EU Brexit negotiating team disaster that will impact us worst.
Congrats to Boris! Well done, dude.
Till again…….
(1)https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/elizabeth-warren-says-the-warning-lights-are-flashing-for-the-next-economic-crash/
The Coming Crash!
July 7, 2019
What RTE Won’t Tell You ….Part 111
https://www.rte.ie/player/series/prime-time/SI0000000825?epguid=IH000368207
Listen to Eoghan Murphy Minister for Housing explain all the wonderful things he has done to tackle the housing crisis. The only problem with his account is it has failed to prevent numbers increasing including up to 4000 children condemned to live in virtual concentration camps with 
poor quality of life that will infect their lives with damage for the rest of their lives. He’s great at saying, this is our plan, I’ve been encouraging the housing agencies, private developers, local authorities, had this, that and the other meetings and we all know this is urgent.
Nope its waffle. Every time I listen to this tripe I feel think I’ve been sold a rotten car by a slick car salesman. It’s not helped by RTE asking stock questions that are followed by stock answers based on wishful thinking and failure to act.
It’s simple, what RTE need to do is picture the problems in homelessness and in the property crisis on a county by county basis. I don’t particularly want to tell anybody else how to do their job, but I’ll make an exception.
Please put the projected house builds on a county by county basis on a diagram producing the numbers and locations with associated planned selling prices for us all to see. Let’s have a discovery of what is planned over the next 12 months.
Not a waffle fest with Murphy blowing about his encouragement of others to act followed by his excuses as to why there is failure to act. The picture diagrams giving numbers of housing units, locations, intended selling prices and other descriptives such as the nature of the development, the developers, builders, whether for sale or for rent, can be left on RTE site to add additional information on an ongoing basis.
Planning issues such as the cost of planning, lack of tax if there is land hoarding, government tax incentives, reductions in stamp duty are all worth asking about. But at the end of the day, numbers are what counts, numbers are the new builds coming to market. Let’s see the actual data for these builds.
Chief executive of NTMA Conor O’Kelly made the following remarks (1) remarks at the Dáil’s Public Accounts Committee (PAC). He was asked by Sinn Féin TD David Cullinane about the risks of Brexit and Ireland’s €205bn national debt. He said ” the chances of another economic downturn are “100pc” and Ireland “can’t afford not to have a contingency in place”. ”
We have a massive debt of €205bn down from €225 around 2012 and we’ve paid over €60bn in interest on it over the past 10 years and it remains stubbornly almost as high as it was following our recession. Our debt per capita is higher than in Greece, Italy, Portugal, Spain.
We are in the frontline of the fallout from Brexit. It’s unlikely we will get much support from the EU to deal with this.
Phil Hogan the Eu Commissioner for Agriculture has announced with his EU colleagues perhaps the death knell to the Irish beef industry. a €27 indigenous industry providing large scale employment and stability to the Irish Economy.
“European Union agriculture commissioner Phil Hogan has rejected criticism of the EU/Latin American Mercusor trade deal, saying critics are exploiting environmental concerns to block efforts to boost free trade.”
Reminiscent of the sell out of the Irish fishing industry the deal is ironic when compared to the trashing of proposed Brexit deal with Latin American countries when Brexit was announced initially. The EU has now done a similar deal and Phil Hogan supports it.
In another parallel with so-called indecisiveness of the UK parliament’s negotiations over Brexit, on the contrary, election to top European jobs have been a shambles and an affront to democracy.
The role of medium to small countries in such matters has already been downgraded and eroded by the notion of qualified majority voting brought in after the Lisbon Treaty:
Click to access EPRS_ATA%282014%29545697_REV1_EN.pdf
“The new voting method, included in the EU Constitutional Treaty, was confirmed in the Lisbon Treaty (Article 16 TEU/ Article 238TFEU) although slightly modified. In contrast to the previous majority rules, which are said to have better protected smaller and medium-sized Member States, the new system focuses on the demographic weight of Member States. The adoption of acts by the Council now requires the approval of 55% of Member States (16) (72% if the act has not been proposed by the Commission), which must represent at least 65% of the EU’s population (currently approximately 328.6 million of a total 505.5 million). To limit the possibility of larger states joining together to stop proposals, a blocking coalition must include at least four Member States representing at least 35% of the EU’s overall population. In cases where not all Member States participate in voting (e.g. acts adopted only by euro area or Schengen Member States, or within enhanced cooperation), the qualified majority is calculated only on the basis of the participating Member States. Until 31 March 2017 any member of the Council can request, on a case-by-case basis, that the old voting rules be applied.”
(2)
“The top job, currently occupied by Jean-Claude Juncker. The commission is the executive branch of the European Union, setting the policy agenda and directing the civil service.
The spitzenkandidat system traditionally sees the European party with the most votes have its spitzenkandidat(lead candidate) chosen as the new Commission president.”
This is how the process works:
Its a tit for tat competition for power between the European Parliament and the European Council.
“All Spitzenkandidaten and MEPs: Weber was not the only lead candidate who couldn’t put together a majority in Parliament. Nor could Timmermans, or Competition Commissioner Margrethe Vestager, who emerged as the liberals’ choice for the Commission. And MEPs from the main pro-EU groups were not willing to make the compromises necessary to establish such a majority. That handed the whip hand to national leaders to pick someone else — resulting in the surprise choice of von der Leyen.”
Weber was the center-right European People’s Party’s Spitzenkandidat, or lead candidate, in the European election. The EPP emerged as the largest group in the election, despite losing seats, many in the EPP believed Weber should become Commission president.
But his candidacy came in for sustained criticism, and EU leaders on Tuesday nominated another German conservative — Defense Minister Ursula von der Leyen — for the Commission post.
Macron — a leading opponent of the Spitzenkandidat system — was one of Weber’s biggest critics, saying he had insufficient “experience” and “credibility.”
Orbán withdrew his support for Weber after the German pledged not to accept the position of Commission president if his success depended on the support of Hungary’s ruling Fidesz party. Before then, Weber had faced a barrage of criticism from his opponents on the campaign trail regarding his close relationship with Orbán.
Weber said the attacks on him were “surprising” as “Macron’s [European] election campaign was particularly directed against Orbán.”
“Macron said ‘vote for my Europe, not for Orbán’s.’ And suddenly they are working together and damaging democratic Europe. Now we are in a shambles.”
Spitzenkandidat process allegedly was to give a bigger role in decision making to the European parliament. The way this has been subverted and its candidate rejected demands a rethink of the process.
The view that the EU is a stitch-up between Germany and France has been strengthened both with the EU – Mercosor deal and Der Leyen appointment. Der Leyen views on a European army:
“EU army: Supports EU states centralizing their militaries, but believes individual countries should continue to be responsible for their own forces. Has called for an “army of Europeans” rather than an “EU army” — one that should not challenge NATO. Supports closer cooperation on questions of arms, equipment and mission coordination. “Our army of Europeans shows how we can remain trans-Atlantic while becoming more European.” Believes cooperation must improve in a post-Brexit world as the UK was always considered an impediment to it.”
She’s in the past been an avid supporter of Macron. “Orbán withdrew his support for Weber after the German pledged not to accept the position of Commission president if his success depended on the support of Hungary’s ruling Fidesz party. Before then, Weber had faced a barrage of criticism from his opponents on the campaign trail regarding his close relationship with Orbán”
What is significant in all of the horse-trading for the above is the demise of the European Parliament and the increasing power verging on totalitarianism of the European Council, “The European Council is the EU institution that defines the general political direction and priorities of the European Union. It consists of the heads of state or government of the member states, together with its President and the President of the Commission.”
Through its powers of qualified majority voting with often no voting required the EU is lurching further to the right with the growing influence of the hard right of Poland, Hungary and the European Council whose business is more about selling German cars and French wine to Latin America, than it is to protect the lower or middle class of Europe including farmers from the ravages of corporate exploitation through financialisation.
Expect armies to grow under Der Leyen, sales of French arms to increase, a new German army to emerge, and the poor to grow poorer.
With the coming crash who knows schools may be down to 3 days per week all salaries slashed, hospitals with waiting lists 10 yrs on for surgery, with Germany and France pounding on our doors for their €200bn back and demanding more austerity. We haven’t talked about what happened in Cyprus and the meaning of Bail-in, the extraction of resources from society through excessive rents and property prices into the unproductive property sector.
With crazy broadband costing up to €3bn, National Children’s Hospital costing €3bn can you too smell the coming recession in the wind.
till again…..
(2) https://www.euronews.com/2019/05/28/how-are-the-eu-s-top-jobs-filled-and-when-euronews-explains
(3) https://www.dw.com/en/from-the-eu-to-trump-where-does-ursula-von-der-leyen-stand/a-49476870
(4)https://www.politico.eu/article/manfred-weber-disappointed-blames-emmanuel-macron-and-viktor-orban/
The End of The Irish Republic
April 14, 2019
An Taoiseach, Leo Varadkar, in a piece in The Sunday Independent p32, 14.04.19, commemorating 1949, when Ireland became a Republic, is effusive in his association of Ireland of today with this historic event.
“The achievement of 70 years ago was a significant moment in our development as a country, and on Thursday we should be proud to recognise this and salute the Republic”
He mentions “We became a member of the EEC in 1973, and Europe enabled us to develop economically, socially, culturally and politically, helping us to turns our dreams of freedom, peace and prosperity into a reality.”
Nothing could be further from the truth.
The truth is we left the Commonwealth and in 1973 we gave away our sovereignty and our hard fought independence to the new German Franco Empire led by Germany.
‘We got your test results back. Read it and weep.’ Bedside bloopers
During the week we had Brexit Chief negotiator visit Dublin for talks “Barnier’s visit follows the visit of German Chancellor Angela Merkel on Thursday and Varadkar’s meeting with French President Emmanuel Macron on Tuesday.” In effect, however compliant and obedient the Irish puppet government in its membership of the EU, these visits dictate who runs this country.
Its ironic we never saw these “friends” on our shore during Ireland’s economic collapse 2008 2010 when the Irish government was forced to instigate a €64 billion bank bailout from the troika at which even the IMF was horrified at the terms imposed on Ireland by its so-called friend in the EU.
(1)https://www.thejournal.ie/barnier-dublin-visit-brexit-talks-4579444-Apr2019/
Behind the commemorative pageantry next week our membership of the EEC belies an erosion of Republican sovereignty beginning with economic collapse that has steadily eroded our freedoms economically and politically. Some argue our governing parties and their politicians have so little power left that it’s little more helpless inertia.
Our economic success is often touted as reliant on FDI and there is much truth in this. Corporation tax is as oil to the Saudi’s for Ireland. Arguments that FDI would take flight from Ireland if we left the EEC given the large investment in this country by FDI are spurious. FDI is also global exporting worldwide rather than merely to the EEC.
Looking at Ireland through the Republican Varadkar lens is a bit light looking at the ‘Republican’ status of one of the satellite states of the the previous USSR.
Let’s look at our supposed Freedoms: Organs of our state are responsible for providing the health and education needs of our people. Currently these vital organs are in a state of shutdown.
Affordability in Dublin has reached levels of 9 times the average industrial wage for young individuals and families(1) There is no central database requiring purchasers to declare themselves as purchasers and indicate the source of funding.
Its believed developers including vulture funds and large institutional funds from the FDI sector are using financial armoury to outbid local bidders. There is no tax on this type of investment from abroad as in other jurisdictions eg Vancouver, Montreal imposition of 20% tax on foreign investment funding from China.
But the market is even more petrified than the above facts can explain.
”
(3)High levels of social housing delivery were possible in the 1950’s because the funding method spread out the costs of provision and kept them affordable for government. At this time social housing was funded by very long-term loans, which were repaid using a mix of central government subsidies, tenants’ rents and the proceeds of domestic rates.
This funding model collapsed when domestic rates were abolished in 1978 and after that the exchequer paid for social house building in lump-sum grants. The latter arrangement was less affordable because the costs of provision were paid up front rather than spread out over a long period, which helps to explain why insufficient numbers of social houses were built even during the Celtic Tiger period.
”
So why can’t our government exercise its “Republican” freedom to obtain long-term grants and “very long-term loans, which were repaid using a mix of central government subsidies, tenants’ rents and the proceeds of domestic rates.”
The reason is we are no longer a Republic since our joining of the EEC in 1973. Investment in infrastructure such as housing is governed by European rules. European rules provide for investment in terms of Fiscal Space. Fiscal Space is the gap between what comes in and what it spends. This represents approx 0.5% of our GDP. No more. Arguably countries such as Germany and France can flout such rules.
Given our national emergency with 13000 homeless perhaps double this if those forced to live at home with their parents are counted, you would think there would be national debate on the question of putting pressure on European Central Bank rules to solve our emergency. There is none.
Perhaps the most telling aspect of our pretense at Republican Freedoms is the perilous state of our banking system. If large-scale development of Social Housing were undertaken by this government, there would be a collapse in-house prices to affordable levels. Not a bad thing, or so you might think. However this could preempt a further collapse of our banking system leading to a cascade of investors getting out of the market with sell-offs and negative equity and eventual collapse of our banks once again.
‘Ok…one of us is having the mother of all hallucinations…’
Thus we have our main political parties overseeing the cocooning of our economy “a silky case spun by the larvae of many insects for protection as pupae” There are many insects protected and cocooned under our present false economy. Many TD’s are heavily invested in our property market that is extracting lifeblood out of out economy.
While the revenues from Corporation Tax pour in falsely contributing to growth figures hiding the true state of our economy, a little investigation and research shows the true state of our economy under the lies told in mainstream media.
Rental/lease commercial costs, legal costs (largest in Europe in some areas), hoovering up of finance to spend on mortgage and loan repayments, Insurance costs, lack of capital spending on public services and utilities, under investment in health and education sacrificed on the altar of support for the property private sector under the shadow of banking, under the dominion of Fiscal Space controlled from German and French political influence.
Our politicians instead play out a pageant of Republican Freedom. The reality is dominion status in an EEC growing increasingly more uncompetitive in the world market where Asia and Africa influence and prosperity is growing instead of declining as it is in the EEC.
Brexiteers reading this be warned what has happened to this country and to its economic prospects. Look at our homeless that is becoming Stalinesque on its damage to young and old. Look at our national emergency in health care with waiting lists rising to incomprehensible levels of absurdity. Observe the flight of doctors, GP’s and healthcare professionals leaving this country. Observe the cuts in pay rates across the board in Public Services especially in education leading to the flight of teachers leaving our country.
Observe the absence of accountability with squandered billions on our national Children’s Hospital and note that disappearing accountability is a hallmark of a dictatorship where the people have no say and propaganda rewrites history. Its ironic Brexiteers have so much in common with Irish nationalists of the late nineteenth and early twentieth century in their search for freedom.
Remaining in the EU could bring worse on your country. You may not have the oil of FDI to mask, cocoon and hide the underlying damage to your economy brought about by economic collapse, “bailout”, austerity under the German/Franco dominion of the EU, and political governance that is remarkable only for its neglect and willful incompetence.
When Leo Varadkar visits Tusk and Barniere during talks over Brexit, perhaps he should have a read of Watership Down by Richard Adams on his way across in the government jet
“They meet a rabbit named Cowslip, who invites them to join his warren. At first Hazel’s group are relieved to finally be able to sleep and feed well – except for Fiver, who senses only death there. When Bigwig is nearly killed in a snare, the group realize that the new warren is managed by a farmer who protects and feeds the rabbits, but also harvests a number of them for their meat and skins. The residents of the new warren are simply using Hazel and the others to increase their own odds of survival.”
We joined the EU in 1973 claiming it would bring economic stability, instead it brought near total economic collapse in 2008-2010, its not our true home, Barniere and Tusk in present negotiations are using Varadkar and the others to increase the odds of their own survival.
When the time comes, Ireland will be sacrificed by the EEC in spite of any illusory freedoms of a Republican kind that Varadkar may dream about. In daylight such dreams become a mirage and an Easter pageant that means 13000 homeless are sacrificed on a daily basis.
Till again….
2. https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/government-takes-in-near-record-2- 7bn-in- corporation-tax-in-november-1.3720002
(3) https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/letters/social-housing-ideology-and-economics-1.2401968
Easy Brexit!
March 31, 2019
Well it’s finally here and so-called Hard Brexit looms. Europhiles and anti Brexiteers prophecying disaster and apocalyse have become endemic. The old order of the EU is broken and to be replaced with chaotic shambles and disorder. Nah the UK will do very well out of leaving the European Economic Union.
“That’s Laura’s Susanne Bartsch imitation. I guess it’s time for us to go.”
The German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Emmanuel Macron, President of France, are to descend on Ireland next week for urgent discussions with Leo Varadkar, Taoiseach. The stakes are high.
Leo’s preparations for a hard Brexit will be put under the spotlight. He has consistently refused to talk of such preparations convinced that Theresa May’s backstop deal negotiated with the EU over nearly three years would be acceptable to the UK parliament.
Whether out of self-delusion, arrogance, conceit, poor judgment or political naivete and inexperience Varadkar and his European colleagues leading the Brexit negotiations have set up sail under a Brexit deal with a leader of the UK: “Theresa May has suffered 22 defeats in the House of Commons, the biggest of which was by a margin of 230 votes on her Withdrawal Agreement on Britain leaving the EU, the biggest loss in UK Parliamentary history.” that has been rejected outright by politicians on every side of the political divide in the UK.
Such a resounding defeat raises serious questions about the credibility of negotiations led by the authors of such a resound defeat. Arguably the Brexit back stop deal played into the hands of Brexiteers easily persuaded by the view the deal was not only worse than what the the UK had now but it was a charter for the breakup of the UK.
The simple way of looking at this is that the EU and the UK had their chance to sell a deal to the UK parliamentary representatives of the people. They failed to sell an acceptable deal however poorly conceived. The consequence is the UK leaves without a deal.
There are many forces at work to try to undermine the democratic freedom and will of the British people such as efforts made to postpone the pretend and extend negotiations indefinitely with no guarantee of any deal ever. Or a second or more referenda, or as John Major would prefer, not leaving at all, a ‘pretend leave’ with the UK staying in the customs union.
Delivering a huge mandate against totalitarian denial of democratic freedoms such as repeated referenda disregarding the will of the people:
The Commons Speaker, John Bercow,
(1)”Bercow has said the government cannot bring the meaningful vote back to parliament again unless there has been substantial change to the Brexit deal. He made the announcement in a surprise statement to MPs, giving Downing Street no advance warning. (See 4.17pm.) Crucially, in response to a question from Labour’s Hilary Benn, Bercow also suggested that the EU would have to change what it has agreed with the UK for a further vote to be allowed. (See4.08pm.) He said a change would have to be “not different in terms of wording, but different in terms of substance”. But he also stressed that he would consider any proposition on its merits, and that what he was saying today did not mark his final word on the matter.”
(1)https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2019/mar/18/brexit-latest-news-theresa-may-vote-deal-boris-johnson-tells-may-to-try-again-to-get-eu-to-change-backstop-politics-live
Its time after all the debates and efforts to pave the way for controlled withdrawal of the UK from the EU to realise such efforts on behalf of all have not been wasted. We have seen democracy in action. After all have had their say its time for parliament to give to the UK people what they voted for, withdrawal from the EU including the EU customs Union.
The no-deal scenario must be triggered at midnight April 12. There is no possibility a better deal can come from the EU. Nor is there possibility a better deal would be available if deferred indefinitely. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XjbM4NmjLcA
Such an outcome of hard Brexit was flagged repeatedly in this blog. There is no easy way to disentangle economic relationships going back over 40yrs. This will demand ingenuity, adaptation and change and some sacrifice on all concerned.
The struggle will be worth it and will go a long way to counteract an EU growing evermore remote from the people of Europe in economic ties benefiting rich corporations and banks in favour of austerity and cutbacks in public services and a growing divide into totalitarianism where even politicians, never mind the people, increasingly, have no say.
The arrival of Merkel and Macron this week to inspect Irish border preparations is a humiliation for the Irish government and a classic demonstration of who really holds the reins in Europe. Donal Tusk in the style of a foreign dictator wishes the British people to revoke the Article 50 mandate
Who voted for him? How dare he try to interfere and undermine the democratic will of the UK people. Did you get to vote for him, no you didn’t! Angela Merkel supported him. Enough said.
…till again
The Backstop Farce!
January 28, 2019
I’ve huge respect for Gene Kerrigan. But in his column Soapbox Jan 27, he gets it wrong.
Attacking Mr Davis, former Brexit Minister in Her Majesty’s government, he describes Dominic Cummings, one of Mr Davis’s companion Brexiteers, describing him “thick as mince” and “lazy as a toad”.
Attacking Mr Davis in this way denigrating and dissing Brexiteers is typical of an intellectual hubris that regards Brexit as stupid and Brexiteers worse.
In his article Mr Kerrigan is resounding on his criticism of our political class “they can’t educate, house or medically their people effectively. He points to the mad increase of the cost of the proposed Children’s Hospital rising from estimated €404m in 2012 to estimated €1,730m last December (it’s still rising).
We need the publication of the micro data that underpins totals of all the estimates under the different headings to look closely. How did they arrive at the guesstimate that loads taxpayers of our small island with the costliest hospital ever built in the world.
“…The Department of Public Expenditure and Reform, whose function is to supervise Government procurement and public expenditure, has gone into hiding. Its Secretary General has refused to appear before the Oireachtas Joint Committee on Health to account for the Department’s role in this process.” Mary Lou McDonald
https://www.oireachtas.ie/ga/debates/debate/dail/2019-01-23/18/
In Health, hospital waiting lists, trolley crisis in A&E, the cervical smear controversy, serious lack of beds and a recruitment crisis, should demand declaration of a national emergency and resignation of current minister for the debacle, Simon Harris.
In housing commercial property is the only large-scale development taking place at the moment. Large scale residential developments inadequate to the demands of 13000 homeless, instead of fast tracking in a planning process stall in a rentier dysfunctional market skewed by unaffordability and fast buck profiteering by landlords and developers, a gauntlet of delay ambushed by objections many of which come from the political class.
The planning process itself has not been reformed to adapt to the undeclared but real national emergency in homelessness. Abnormal has been made the new normal. Its sobering to compare how the general population under Nazi Germany accepted the pogroms against the Jews, or how in Famine times in Ireland, large parts of this island accepted famine as normal with most indifference shown most by the well-heeled. Such indifference politically has become the new normal.
Mr Kerrigan, who is a keen Remainer, fails to connect the failure of government in Education and Health in any way to our membership of the EU. Instead he connects the dots by ascribing blame to a right wing liberal market ideology of the main parties in government. Not for him any austerity imposed pro bank Stability and Growth Pact rendering our political class neutral, indifferent, neutered.
He fails to follow the bread crumb trail leading back to the Dept of Finance, the troika , The Irish Central Bank, Austerity imposed by the EU demanding adherence to its Fiscal Space and Stability and Growth Pact has led to the extraordinary situation of No teachers applying for jobs anywhere across the country over the past year, almost all posts effected.
Salary imbalances, poor conditions, lack of prospects, poor pay, profession is being ruined with so-called ‘reforms’ attempting to make teachers work for half the pay with double the workload.
Large scale investment in education and health and in property development is a function of how our banks operate in particular how the Irish Central Bank operates under the rules of the European Central Bank. The phrase ‘fiscal space’ is not understood in its full meaning by Mr Kerrigan. According to him political class and ideology is at the root of what he regards as poor decision-making by incompetent politicians. Its nothing of the sort.
Political eunuchs made dysfunctional and powerless are not made by choice. They are made by the imposition of budgetary decision-making made externally regarding our fiscal space by the ICB and the ECB. It would be foolish to think the troika has gone away. They are part of the invisible hand governing the management of our economy and the growing powerlessness of our political class.
Let’s get back to Mr Davis. Is he as stupid as Mr Kerrigan makes him out to be, am I, as stupid as a Brexiteer indeed an Irexiteer, as Mr Kerrigan makes us out to be. Such criticism is part of a deep vein of antagonism and propaganda against Brexiteers. Such attacks are not helpful to real debate, Remainers are not no-brainers, neither are Brexiteers or Irexiteers.
“Between 2003 and 2008, he was the Shadow Home Secretary in the Shadow Cabinets of both Michael Howardand David Cameron. Davis had previously been a candidate for the leadership of the Conservative Party in 2001and 2005, coming fourth and second respectively. On 12 June 2008, Davis unexpectedly announced his intention to resign as an MP, and was immediately replaced as Shadow Home Secretary; this was in order to force a by-election in his seat for which he intended to seek re-election by mounting a specific campaign designed to provoke wider public debate about the erosion of civil liberties in the United Kingdom. Following his formal resignation as an MP he became the Conservative candidate in the resulting by-election, which he won a month later. In 2012, together with Liam Fox, he founded Conservative pressure group Conservative Voice to amplify the voice of grassroots members, which Davis thought was getting lost in the party.[1]
In July 2016, following a referendum in which a majority of those voting supported leaving the European Union, he was appointed by new Prime Minister Theresa May to the brand-new Department for Exiting the European Union(DExEU) as Secretary of State, with responsibility for negotiating the UK’s prospective exit from the EU.”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Davis_(British_politician)
Mr Davis, as I do, cares about civil liberties and the erosion of democracy and democratic values. I don’t believe Mr Davis is stupid!
Lets consider stupidity a bit more. One might consider the insistence of Leo Varadkar and Irish negotiators on a Backstop as stupidly responsible for the lack of a deal on Brexit. Clearly the resounding defeat by circa 230 votes of Teresa May’s backstop deal brings into question how Alice in Wonderland were Irish negotiators regarding such a resounding defeat uniting Remainers and Brexiteers against it.
Yet judging by coverage on the media lessons have not been learned. The May deal is lauded as gifted wisdom of the gods forged by the European Commission and UK negotiators with maximum expertise forged from steel over a long period of time.
Did it lose in the greatest defeat in the history of the UK, yes it did. If it looks like a duck, swims like a duck, and quacks like a duck, then it probably is a duck. A duck for this narrative is of course Theresa May’s Failed Brexit Deal.
‘Well, sure! When you’re sitting inside a dry and cozy cardboard box, it’s EASY to be optimistic about the economy!’
Its nonsense to think there could not be a border given Brexit. Efforts should be made to use technology and light regulation to facilitate a deal in our best interests. The very idea of Backstop is a failure to accept and to deal with the outcome of the UK Brexit referendum, that Britain will leave the EU meaning its Customs Union, the ECJ and leave behind all ties that bind it to regulatory powers imposed by the EU.
Instead of Alice in Wonderland backstop time would much better have been spent in mitigating the effects of Brexit and developing a deal that would work in the interest of Europe and the UK in a new political reality.
Irexit is never part of political or media discourse its censored and banned.
With Irexit comes the possibility of a new Treaty with the UK uniting the Republic of Ireland with Northern Ireland. The ruinous, fracturing of this island has done enough political, social and intellectual damage; Brexit will make this worse.
There are alternatives to ‘Backstop’. Backstop is dead defeated having met its Waterloo in the House of Commons vote:
Sun Independent, 27.01.19:
“”European Commission President Jean- Claude Juncker has reportedly told UK Prime Minister Theresa May in a phone call that she will have to sign up to a permanent customs union if she wants the EU to revisit the backstop.”
The saga continues, remaining in the customs union would be BRINO (Brexit in name only).
A 2nd referendum would be a denial of democracy akin to a subversion of democracy. Clearly any arguments in favour of a 2nd referendum would equally apply to a 3rd, 4th referendum etc ad infinitum. Perhaps we could have an infinite number of referenda and by differential calculus work out what a true result might be?
Remainers should be concerned referenda are not in favour in the EU.
Failure to pass the Nice and Lisbon treaties and the referendum on Brexit in the UK is causing a rethink in Europe on whether such referenda should be held at all, all part of the erosion of democracy that will lead to decreasing civil liberties. Greece, Ireland, Spain, Portugal, Cyprus know they are not free with bailouts forced on them; Italy and it’s banks have had enough.
C
Rules Are The Rules!
January 14, 2019
Perhaps those asking for a second referendum we should ask if they would agree to putting their views before their own electorate and having a new vote that would determine both if the electorate wish to keep them in the position they’ve been elected to and whether their electorate would like a new referendum?
I doubt if remainers asking for a second referendum would agree to that. Democracy is a precious thing and it should be guarded and respected. We’ve already had a referendum.
Its crucial the will of the people of the UK be respected politically. Perhaps the very future of democracy in Europe is at stake. The continuing erosion of democracy across Europe has been a hallmark of the EU. Centralised control and the building of an army that could be used against its own citizens, future diminution of sovereign control from member states is part of the EU agenda going forward.
A Norway + style Brexit is on the cards if the reckless and hazardous and unworkable May Agreement is voted down in Westminster as it will be.
It makes sense for the EU to support a senseless Irish backstop. They need to keep us sweet not wandering off perhaps joining Brexit with the UK. Perhaps ruefully wondering why we did not take the route of Iceland. Ireland being one of the most heavily indebted countries in the world, our money owed to German and French banks.
Not quite the vassal state as Greece or Cyprus, but our austerity driven economy is managed from afar by Brussels and Frankfurt and the ECB. We cannot invest to solve our housing crisis or our hospital Waiting List/A & E/ Homelessness that by right should have us declare a national emergency.
Our indebtedness ironically helps protect our Corporation tax from circling Europeans wishing to impose a fairer distribution of corporate profits across mainland Europe.
If the corporate tax wall fell, our economy could collapse and they might not get their money back!
Meanwhile Brexit propaganda continues. The loss of thousands of jobs in Rover and Jaguar announced over the past week is being attributed by ‘Remainers’ to Brexit.
More difficult to explain is the falling profits of Apple perhaps the biggest canary in the global financial economy. Let me offer explanation:
The global economy:
Countering deflation by the ECB has led it to follow the Fed into QE asset buying primarily government bonds and corporate bonds.
In the US “The very large US federal deficits during the QE period (2008-2011) led to a very large increase in the supply of longer-dated federal debt securities (bonds), given that a large proportion of any debt issuance of the US Treasury is always in longer-term paper. Moreover, explicit decisions by the US debt management office to lengthen the average maturities of the new securities it was offering to the public, further substantially increased the outstanding amount of longer-term US federal debt securities.”
Substantial increases in public debt grows dependence and reliance on interest rates. Large scale asset purchases by both the Fed and ECB in QE a policy of low-interest rates counter deflation in the short-term. However, paper financial assets lifting recovery of virtual stock markets has a downside recognised by Central Banks themselves.
The real economy through trickle down financialisation of the global economy does not match the recovery of stocks and shares traded on world exchanges.
The real effect of QE boosts is pocketed by TBTF rich banks and financial institutions and the 1% or .001% who trade on global stock markets: in the global casino, tools of financialisation have now subsumed and consumed property assets putting property out of the reach of growing numbers of the middle class which itself is fast disappearing.
But here’s the thing. There is a real economy beyond the virtual economy manipulated by Central banks.
When the wealth of the real economy is siphoned off, for example, in a rentier based financial system, property is only affordable by the rich. The proportion of income siphoned off in rents, mortgages, eventually has catastrophic consequences for the simple, pragmatic laws of supply and demand.
Eventually there is no money in the real economy to purchase Apple Iphones, Rover and Jaguar cars, family housing.
Eventually the realisation comes that the share price of these companies doesn’t match the real fall in demand experienced by such companies in a ‘managed’ economy. These effects are exaggerated and accelerated as Central banks realise their stimulus programmes are failing as they must eventually, the real economy is in decline while the gulf between rich and poor is widening.
A large part of Brexit includes disillusionment with the management of monetary policy at the heart of the ECB. So-called independence of the ECB has been shown in countless cases, Ireland, Greece, Cyprus to be influenced by German and French bias. There is lack of democratic control and accountability at a sovereign, national level, even though the UK is outside the euro.
There is the continued erosion of national sovereignty in member states: “Jean-Claude Juncker, the commission president and former Luxembourg premier, has previously said he wants to roll back national tax powers that have long helped countries such as Luxembourg, Ireland and Malta to preserve distinctive, investment-friendly regimes. Big member states have also used the blocking-powers to protect peculiarities or competitive advantages in their tax systems.”
If the financial sector has been bailed out by QE, it has leached and stolen its rewards investing in the financial market with little trickle down to the real economy.
Austerity has further eroded the real economy. Finance has been siphoned off to the rich leading to further distortion of the real economy. Now like a dog wagging its tail the real economy tail has come home to roost through the laws of supply and demand.
Demand from the real economy is suffocating leading to the inevitable collapse of a virtual stimulus led economy exposed by inevitable falling demand.
UK free of the constraints of financial policy across the euro zone should eventually benefit from a stimulus due to more competitive exchange rate and goods fueled by cheaper imports. Its manufacturing sector should equally experience growth if tariffs on imported luxury goods get replaced with locally produced new products.
Lets hope Brexit will be delivered to the free and democratic people of the UK. If Brexit is not delivered, at risk is the very existence of democracy on European soil.
Some videos for you to ponder, enjoy the debate!
“Deflation begets monsters” Yanis Varo..authoritarianism increasing
Rules Are The Rules!……nb “Growth & Stability Pact”…….Look no further re lack of investment effort to end homelessness in Ireland by state promoted support of rent/house building/pricing through local councils or by other means.
Till again
Colm
Colmbrazel's Blog 