The Scuttled Economy!

The FG/FF et al coalition negotiations continue. From the sublime to the ridiculous to the plainly undemocratic push back against the will of the people, we need a Referendum to establish reasonable limits on negotiations, 40 days?

Then its put to the people again!

I’m all for 2 meter Covid regulations if this were feasible. If such regulations scuttle the economy, we should pull back from them and only implement what is feasible. But weak governments tend to allow themselves be led by so-called experts. The trouble is those with medical expertise lack economic expertise. There appear to be no economic experts in government!

In 2008, so-called experts led us to pay off every bondholder even those who did not expect to be paid.

Here we go again! There’s now doubt about the medical expertise of the so-called experts! Currently, even the WHO is advocating a 1 meter rule. Our experts choose to ignore this advice and they have the backing of government! Saves government lacking in expertise to adopt government by proxy and allow others to do the job for them!

Covid 19 is a virus we are still learning about and this is why experts sometimes get it wrong. Initially, our fears based on movies such as https://www.townandcountrymag.com/leisure/arts-and-culture/g32419194/pandemic-movies/ led us to fear we were all going to die.

Gradually, we found out most people who got Covid 19 would recover from it though symptoms could be deadly especially for the elderly and those with underlying complications: if not deadly the worst could be  similar to a nasty flu.

Then we found out children were not asymptomatic carriers never mind at risk of getting the disease.

On last Sunday I listened to RTE report there were 3 deaths from Covid. 2 of those were 92yrs old, the other person was 78yrs old. Yes, they died of Covid but let’s not understate the contributory factor of old age and its vulnerabilities, as also a factor!

Many journalists lack scientific training with the attention to detail this requires in regard to medical matters. This does not help objective coverage of the scientific evidence.

I would be particularly interested in more scientific investigation of what is meant by “underlying causes” that contribute to death by Covid 19, particularly, in the age group 18-65yrs. Why is it that someone aged 38yrs dies of Covid, while the vast majority recover from what may be mild symptoms to those compared to a nasty flu! More data needs to be gathered and analysed to help us learn more to help us live with the presence of this new virus as vaccination cure seems to be some years off.

Perhaps scuttling the economy and its benefits need to be accurately measured against the benefits of a more measured approach based on scientific evidence that requires us to throw all our expertise in detection, tracking and responding to clustering in eg our Nursing Homes of Covid 19? We will need to be good at this when lockdown ends and the second wave begins.

Throwing caution to the wind compared to showing caution regarding economic matters should not be the order of the day.

Keeping the elderly confined to their homes unnecessarily may be in breach of their democratic rights to self implement Covid advice should they choose to exercise caution without dictates imposed on them. Many Draconian and sinister laws and regulations can be introduced under the radar of Covid. We need to be on our guard.

Dictates is a troublesome word that conjures up images of dictatorship and tyranny and the disappearance of democracy. One interesting event recently was the intervention of the data protection agency objecting to the passing of personal Covid test results to employers previous to sending results to individuals concerned.

There’s currently emerging discussion on the feasibility of implementing a 2 meter rule for children returning to school this September. Some children may not have school but perhaps a curtailed attendance to a number of days per week. Sceptics way wonder is this a concealed way to spend less on education, to half class sizes, to pay teachers even less. To put education online, to end the provision of public education! Such ideas were off the table not long ago and belonged to the realm of sci fi? Let’s be optimistic and hope our children get the education they deserve.

It’s not looking good for our universities at the loss of upwards of half a billion revenue from foreign students that kept them afloat!

While we’ve all been carried merrily over the economic waterfall, we’re not quite sure what will happen when we land at the bottom of the waterfall. There does not appear to be any concern that some unmerciful disaster beckons that will pale into insignificance anything we’ve endured because of Covid.

There is an overweaning optimism that in spite of damage done, the economy will bounce back nationally and globally.

But Economics is a miserable science. And China is doing very well out of Covid and apparently is bouncing back.

Previous to Covid China was a growing septic tank of unsustainable economic bubbles led by massive borrowing including the generation of lending for ghost cities. It was about to reap the reward of its debt burdens leading a global slow down. Now its ahead of the West.

Response from the EU to the pandemic has been to throw €750bn as a recovery missile. The trouble is something similar was done after the crash in 2008, it was called QE (Quantitative Easing). Most of this money filled the pockets of the 1%. So in the past few years we’ve seen the numbers of millionaires and billionaires increase exponentially while the poor paid out of their pockets for this through austerity taxes and public service cutbacks.

Now the talk is of Loans and Grants. Who gives loans to poor people who cannot pay the loans back?

Grants are a different thing. Grants are more beguiling. I understand by a grant that it means the money doesn’t have to be paid back. But a recent discussion on the media gave me to understand that, in Orwellian Newspeak, the word has now been given another meaning.

We should pay close attention to where these euro billions go. There’s been little in the media regarding our slice of this cake.

“GRANTS” now means, you don’t have to pay the grant back until your business is making a profit and recovering. Then you have to pay it back! But isn’t that a LOAN?

Careful attention to the detail of how the EU will spend its €750bn is required. Many countries object to the way this money will be administered that’ll amount to preferential treatment of individual countries, unfair competition in the airline industry and elsewhere in the EU corporative structure. This exceeds the mandate for which the EU is set up.

This was never supposed to happen in the EU. It would appear reform in the EU is now back peddling; the UK through Brexit can consider it a lucky escape not to be on the hook for the €750bn.

Here’s a nostalgic look back at a Reform debate of some years ago:

 

 

Covid claims for success by the experts should be taken with a pinch of salt. Over half the deaths due to Covid occurred in our nursing homes.  Regulations so far, have given breathing space for public services and hospitals to prepare for mitigating the second wave that will inevitably arise on return to the so-called normal. We cannot claim with any basis in science that our response to Covid has been proportional to the number of lives saved. But these claims will be made. Other measures such as those adopted by Sweden might have had the same amount of success with less of a detrimental effect on our economy.

For sure, when the second wave breaks over this country, we will be able to measure the economic consequences with more accuracy. Certainly with more clarity than the avoidance of economic consequences has achieved so far.

We’ve made mistakes in the management of the Covid outbreak not the least of which was allowing the match between Ireland and Italy go ahead with fans allowed to travel and mingle in Dublin a day before Italy itself shut its own borders. We made disastrous mistakes in the management of Covid in Nursing Homes and in Direct Provision Centres.

But overall we’ve done quite well. We can still avoid making a mess of opening up after lockdown.

Perhaps our mistakes may be the reason we lag behind Europe in opening up our lockdown.

Medical evidence is extensive supporting the fact children are not prone to Covid nor are they asymptomatic carriers.

But we maintain severe lockdown of schools with the threat that there may be imposition of a 2-meter rule that would mean schools would have to reduce their intake numbers next September.

Michael O Leary of Ryanair has cited the evidence from Europe that air travel with medical face mask precautions rules should allow planes to fly immediately and Europe itself is adopting its own scientific guidelines permitting this.

Yet we are introducing mandatory forms at airports that are useless: if Covid is diagnosed such information will more effectively be sought from the airline with information already on file to enable contact tracing.

Real scientific data on the progress of the virus through Europe and in Ireland is difficult to find. Testing remains problematic, biggest issue being the extent and the length of time required for proper testing; the symptoms themselves provide better data both for victims and service providers.

We need to be more scientific, more measured, more reactive to actual evidence and perhaps more humble and less arrogant in regard to evidence that is emerging on a little known virus with such devastating economic consequences.

Without detriment to the view for some this virus carries potentially deadly consequences….

We need an effective government in place instead of the pretenders to the throne who’ve long outstayed their welcome by our electorate. The scuttling of an economy can have equally lethal consequences for some as compared to the medical consequences of Covid-19.

 

till again..