Black Swans and What Should Happen Next?

June 29, 2016

Ireland was the only member state to hold referendums on The Treaty eventually passed as Treaty of Lisbon in October 2009. Already post Brexit there are calls for greater political union in Europe I’m guessing aimed at removal of Article 50 removing the means for member states to withdraw:

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/06/28/the-brexit-and-article-50-cnbc-explains.html

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twenty-eighth_Amendment_of_the_Constitution_of_Ireland

Given the appalling way Ireland was saddled with no debt write down or debt sharing of Ireland’s bill for financial collapse carrying 42% of European financial losses that otherwise would have been carried by German and French banks the case for putting a referendum on membership of the EU has become compelling.

Added to the losses Ireland will incur through Brexit and added to the negative stance within Europe to Ireland’s corporation tax and arguments below, the Irish deserve a referendum to vote on their future within the future imposed on them by membership of the EU.

Ireland should also have a democratic say in any negotiations between the EU and the UK on Ireland’s future relationship re trade and borders. This is another compelling reason for providing a referendum on IREXIT.

Sinister intervention in Ireland by the European Commission on Water Charges forcing them upon the Irish electorate in spite of their declared wishes is an example of an erosion of democratic control of Irish affairs by unelected bureaucrats in the EU.

It’s not precisely the directive to have a certain water policy that galls but the audacious intervention in Irish sovereign taxation affairs that directs us to have separate water charges with a private, commercial monopoly running it.

How we raise the money through taxation should be a matter for Ireland alone. Water charges per se should not be part of the remit of the EU.

There is also the fear of undue influence by private commercial interests in the affairs of the EU wishing to dismantle public services to allow private commercial interests to loot public services for commercial gain.

This is not what membership of the EU was meant to be.

That the Irish derogation for water charges no longer applies is a result of Minister for the Environment  Alan Kelly’s refusal to ask for a derogation:

“In accordance with Article 9.4 of the Water Framework Directive our exemption is embedded in the 2008 River Basin Management Plan. Any renewal or cancellation of the exemption is done in the next 7 year RBMP. And it is the Minister for the Environment who assembles and submits this plan.

This 2015 River Basin Management Plan is due on be handed into Brussels by New Years Day. Both the Irish government and the European Commission are expecting that Minister Kelly will not renew the exemption and will instead include domestic water charging as part of Ireland’s strategy.”

Kelly built no houses for the homeless and gave away our water to private, commercial interests. Enough said of compliance, obedience and incompetence as certain politicians hand over national assets without thought for our national interests or the good of the people.

Meanwhile Enda Kenny is back from his trip to the UK where he successfully alienated the full Brexit movement’s future government by his interference in UK sovereign affairs.

How come Kenny was not asked to walk the plank after his election results is another question. A weak, Irish zombie government of those rejected at the ballot box is not helping in these turbulent times.

He was quoted by one remain politician in the Johnathan Dimbleby “Great Debate” that Kenny said border controls would have to be introduced if Brexit won as if the Irish government would insist on them. Fearful images of Armageddon, barbed wire and Berlin Walls were part of his politics of fear.

Only the most limited if any border controls should be introduced.

 

EU Say Ireland’s Domestic Water Charge Exemption Is Safe, Unless Alan Kelly Gives It Away On January 1st

Update: http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/eu-to-ireland-you-cannot-go-back-on-water-charges-1.2701502

Can you figure out how Scotland reconciles its wishes for independence with membership of the EU. They already have more independence and will have more independence in their relationship with the UK than they would ever get disappearing down the rabbit hole of the EU.

This blog celebrates the restoration of the democratic wishes of the British people that have arguably saved democracy itself from extinction. Congratulations to all Brexit campaigners who fought so well against so overwhelming odds.

Congrats to the UK on managing to drop the value of sterling. This will have a very positive effect on exports and reduce imports and should yield a healthy balance of payments result for the UK.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swan_theory

“The theory was developed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb to explain:

  1. The disproportionate role of high-profile, hard-to-predict, and rare events that are beyond the realm of normal expectations in history, science, finance, and technology.
  2. The non-computability of the probability of the consequential rare events using scientific methods (owing to the very nature of small probabilities).
  3. The psychological biases that blind people, both individually and collectively, to uncertainty and to a rare event’s massive role in historical affairs.”

While this blog campaigned virtually alone in Ireland for Brexit, pollsters and pundits and politicians got it wrong.

Not foreseeing the consequence of Brexit many in the Brexit camp have experienced a state of Black Swan paralysis and currently flounder in limbo unable to navigate a future path to address the issues Brexit has posed. At least that’s what Minister Noonan would have you believe disdainfully scorning Brexit campaigners for lack of future planning.

Not so. The description however does appear to describe well the remains of Noonan’s position on these matters.

Welcoming the positive affirmation of democracy that is in Brexit this blog will address these issues and point a way forward at least on 2 fronts.

Firstly, the UK will go through a process of disengagement with the EU while at the same time arrogating to itself responsibilities in areas previously controlled by the EU. This will require institutional changes and the inception and setting up within UK of parallel lines of responsibility within its own institutions of government and this may take some time to set in place.

It will have to renegotiate its fishery policy with the EU insisting that its borders be respected.

Independent self-government managing its own affairs responding to its own needs and mindful of the needs of the world at large is well within the remit and capabilities of the British people and its representative parliamentary democracy.

The UK needs time to apply its creative energies to this task.

Secondly, given the sad outcome of 2 great performances by both the northern and southern Irish soccer teams at European level our thoughts should wonder at what could be achieved by one single Irish team.

With Brexit our thoughts should be with joining northern Ireland as a single commonwealth entity with equal if not more independent stance than currently enjoyed by both Wales and Scotland. For this we need IRexit.

The sad state of political leadership in southern Ireland is missing the brilliant contribution that could be made by outstanding politicians such as Sammy Wilson or Teresa Villiers in the north.

Southern Ireland cannot afford to be a member of a failing EU with its largest trading partner and neighbour outside the EU; this combined with the fact our island of common interest is split in two. This could be an opportunity of ending “never the twain can meet”.

The second front upon which changes need to be made should be focused on the EU rather than the UK or Ireland.

Consider the following on the EU commission:

“The Commission remains politically answerable to Parliament, which has the power to dismiss it by adopting a motion of censure. The Commission attends all the sessions of Parliament, where it must clarify and justify its policies. It also replies regularly to written and oral questions posed by Members of Parliament.”(1)

It is noted here that a session of the European parliament is due to be convened to discuss all issues relating to Brexit.

This is much overdue following the emergence from the shadows of Angela Merkel announcing a summit of leaders including only France and Italy following Brexit. Leadership by proxy of Europe by Angela Merkel has emerged more and more into visible light since the financial collapse of southern, peripheral European states such as Greece, Portugal and also Ireland.

To observers such as yours truly this only adds to the belief that the EU is government by proxy of Europe by Germany. The implication for dodgy banks in Germany, France and especially Italy with debt to GDP hovering at 120% must have been high on the list of concerns.

Members of the European parliament apart from ex member Nigel Farage are generally a disenfrancised lot with no powers other than to rubber stamp what unelected and mysteriously lobbied and influenced members of the EU Commission allow them to rubber stamp.

But here is an opportunity for the members of the European parliament to censure the mishandling of Brexit by the commission and dismiss the EU commission.

Not a likely scenario but one I advocate. A more likely scenario is the highly paid MEP’s will churlishly say little if nothing and do less.

The European Commission has been woefully remiss in its treatment of David Cameron in its refusal to allow independent derogation for  UK comply with  massively deficient policies on emigration.

The EU commission has woefully mishandled the refugee crisis. It has been compromised by Germany’s go-it-alone policy.

It has allowed geopolitical concerns particularly in the alliance of inner core members such as Germany, France and Italy to exert undemocratic control over the now compromised independence of the European parliament.

It has sat by and allowed the banks of Germany and France to dictate undemocratic terms to the people of Greece.

It has allowed itself to be the pawn of external forces that have lobbied and compromised its independence challenging its role as a policy maker in Europe.

It has failed to shape policies to rebalance Europe and instead has sharpened the divide between northern and southern Europe.

It has had no effect on independent European monetary policy that instead through the European Central Bank followed a go-it-alone policy arguably in favour of monetary policies promoted by Germany looting peripheral members of the EMU.

“New EU rules on economic and financial governance help to Union resources clean up and strengthen the banking sector.”(1)

These rules show how compromised the European Commission is with lobby groups and so-called experts from the banking sector, Goldman Sach’s, Morgan Stanley, influencing and setting policy: those meant to be the subject of regulation choosing their own regulations.

The EU commission has become a toxic brake on European progress and become the pawn of shadowy lobby groups.

The EU commission is not an elected and democratic body but is instead leading member states along the path of totalitarian policies reminiscent of the previous USSR.

Dismissal of the EU commission pending its reform should be high on the agenda of next meeting of the European parliament. This is not likely to happen with even less likelihood of reform that will challenge special interest groups.

A little word on how the European Commission and the ECB have failed to help us in solving our housing crisis. Instead the following scenario is being played out across Europe in countries such as Ireland.

“The financial raiding of the American middle class is moving full steam ahead.  The ridiculous structure of the banking bailouts and artificially low-interest rates caused hot money from banks and big investors to crowd out regular families in the housing market.  Now here we are 7 years after the official conclusion of the Great Recession and regular American families are financially struggling while banks and big investors thrive.  Today 11 million Americans spend half of their income on rent.  Another 21.3 million spent over 30 percent of their income on rent.  With millions of properties being bought by investors since the Great Recession hit, all that has happened is a mega transfer of wealth.  You don’t build equity by renting but many people are simply priced out from buying a home.”(3)

In Ireland the European Commission has done nothing to support Ireland’s growing housing crisis.

It silently supports massive Quantitative Easing QE by the European Central Bank which has led to depreciation of the euro against other currencies.

With negative interest rates this has contributed to a global currency crisis increasingly pillaging the assets of savers and public services though austerity.

It has turned a blind eye to the odious terms imposed on Greece for its bailout while silently supporting the Highest EU debts as a proportion of GDP (2014 Q4)(4) debt levels of Greece, Italy, Portugal, Ireland, Cyprus and Belgium. Italy at 120% debt to GDP of particular interest.European-Debt-to-GDP-Ratios-Oct-2013

 

EU commission needs to be dismissed.

Its management of monetary matters left to the ECB is a failure and its consequences grow more toxic by the day.

 

 

A monetary backdrop to the work of the EU commission is a global fiat currency inflated to kingdom come by the Central Banks through Quantitative Easing.

A return to a gold standard or a similar bitcoin related inter currency standard to stabilise markets and give rise to fair savings and investment in R&D is required.

This is outside the remit of the European Commission and beyond the means of the ECB but its policies favour the maintenance and continuance of this failing currency system.

In a casino driven financial economy that is a bar to further human progress with the European Commission fronting a European banking system that has become the bad bank of Wall Street and the Federal Reserve;  austerity imposed on the people of Europe ;  funding the rich 1% with further giveaways through Draghi’s Quantitative Easing, its time the EU itself considered its future with debt levels described by above graph.

But it would appear through lobby groups and shadowy interests pulling the strings of the EU commission both in the case of banking regulations and the above Irish Water debacle, that the EU itself is fixed upon the path of maintaining the current system of looting and pillaging the middle classes.

The concept of private ownership ownership itself as it was in the USSR may become a distant memory for those who remain in the EU…

Congrats to Brexit saving democracy itself from extinction under the above.

 

    1. How EU Works:  https://eeas.europa.eu/delegations/singapore/documents/more_info/eu_publications/how_the_european_union_works_en.pdf
    2. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2016-06-27/alan-greenspan-u-k-brexit-a-terrible-mistake
    3. http://www.mybudget360.com/share-of-income-spent-on-rent-at-record-high-11-million-spend-half-income-on-rent/
    4. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/greece/11705720/European-debt-crisis-Its-not-just-Greece-thats-drowning-in-debt.html

 

 

till again…

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One Response to “Black Swans and What Should Happen Next?”

  1. I’m not that much of a online reader to be honest but your blogs
    really nice, keep it up! I’ll go ahead and bookmark your site to come back later on.
    All the best

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