July 21, 2013

According to the Sunday Times, editorial, p12, “Britain Needs To Talk About Leaving Europe“, the term Brixit or Brexit has been coined to describe this movement. “There is a £100,000 for the best blueprint for Britain outside the EU

the draft Treaty establishing a Constitution f...

the draft Treaty establishing a Constitution for Europe. I took the photo. The languages shown are English language and Spanish language. (Photo credit: Wikipedia) Hats off for the initiative. Let me put my neologism hat back on and conjure a derivation of Brexit to be ‘IExit’. No wiki for this event yet but suffice it to describe similar blueprints for Ireland outside the EU.

Procedure for leaving the EU for Ireland would I believe follow along similar lines described here:

“Before the Treaty of Lisbon entered into force on 1 December 2009, no provision in the treaties or law of the European Union outlined the ability of a member state to voluntarily withdraw from the EU.[10]

The Treaty establishing a Constitution for Europe provided that any member could voluntarily leave the Union of its own accord[11] but this treaty was never ratified. However the voluntary withdrawal clause survived into the Lisbon Treaty.

This new provision formalised the procedure by stating that a member state may notify the European Council that it wishes to withdraw, upon which withdrawal negotiations begin. If no other agreement is reached the treaty ceases to apply to the withdrawing state two years after such notification.”

Lets assume the following scenario, refusal of ESM or similar euro structure to countenance burden sharing or write-down of Irish debt; deteriorating international trading environment leading to minus growth in Ireland; austerity failing to stimulate the Irish economy; banks forced to realise mortgage debt that will not be repaid; failure of NAMA (- already tumbling from its growth targets contingent on its success); likelihood of a further credit line or mini, backstop bailout required to replace the current failing bailout.

Looking ahead to a zombie decade of increasing austerity without light at the end of the tunnel, it may be better for Ireland to pack its bags and leave the EU in a similar way to the decision faced by 100’s of thousands of Irish emigrants. The only difference is the Irish population cannot abandon the island on mass, however, as in Iceland, this does not preclude staying and fighting for a better deal from our creditors outside of Europe.

One IExit method  might be for both the UK and Ireland to exit the EU together, Ireland would also exit the EMU and leave the euro behind. It could negotiate a unification of the 32 counties and become part of a new Federal currency zone made up of Wales, Scotland, Ireland and UK.

Europe itself could be broken up into a Federal Europe with a looser ‘Commonwealth’ type structure dedicated to removal of trade barriers, a new common currency, the ‘ UNU’ with the proviso that this currency would float with values set in each federal zone to reflect the ability of each federal zone to set its own currency rate against a central benchmark.

This loosely coupled approach is far more suited to the diverse Europe we live in that revolts against over regulation and micro management of its affairs from a central European hub as in the ECB or economic management of European affairs by the troika of ECB, IMF and EU, unity in diversity if you will.

This would replace the current model of Europe with inner core pawnbroker countries such as Germany feeding off usorious and unfair bailouts of peripheral countries. We now know the European model upon which the euro was based was deeply flawed. We now know that austerity is not the remedy to its deteriorating health.

Europhiles in Ireland have set out to prevent this debate happening peppering such contemplation as hazardous and the stuff of Armageddon and disaster for Ireland. Bear in mind such voices brought us the Celtic Tiger and now post meltdown are making a bigger mess of our bailout under austerity.

But they are good at propaganda in Ireland.

Expect to see the thought police, Honahan, Kenny, Noonan, Howlin, Gilmore, Corrigan of NTMA and McCarthy of the ESRI teasing the last bushel of 1% growth from the last set of dodgy stats.

Speaking of dodgy stats we need another parliamentary Dail Committee or one more suited to reformed  Seanad that has not been axed as part of an assault on democracy. This would would take the claims of job announcements especially in the IT sector and audit them. How many have actually been provided on the ground? Are their grounds for correlating grants to the numbers of jobs to be provided?

One announcement of 400 jobs during the week qualified the announcement with the requirement for applicants with multilingual skills.

Often conditionality attached to such jobs removes the possibility of Irish people applying because of lack of qualifications among candidates here at home.

How many jobs actually materialising would be worth investigating.

Meanwhile the double think Irish propaganda machine of NTMA is currently feeding us with news of Ireland preparing for a new bond issue signaling our return to the markets. A little disingenuous given that we may need a backstop credit line coming out of bailout. Nothing to be said about the backstop of the ECB/troika bailout never mind a second bailout insurance for purchasers of these bonds.

Comparisons between the mismanagement of our affairs in the Celtic Tiger years with current mismanagement of our bailout so economic news from government is such that you might believe Ireland was thriving and rising from its financial grave, abounds.

We are still without a banking inquiry though the finger of blame is beginning to point to the Depart of Finance,the banks, the Central Bank and politicians of both parties FG including FF. It would appear all who led the tiger at the Battle of Waterloo are still in situ organising the coming unravelling.

September looks to be a good moment for the coming unravelling. It may happen as bailout unravels in Greece, Portugal and Spain.

Following the Gathering and the Great Scattering by all forced to emigrate from Ireland, there will be Interesting times ahead.

Cowboy economics of Honahan, McCarthy and Corrigan will eventually unravel. Level headed, conservative and a far more consensual and democratic approach will be required.

Our economy is officially back in recession:

Here’s hoping more will take up the challenges posed by IExit.



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