ECB and the Promissory Note

February 3, 2013


Soo we’ve been living on a top-secret diet of complex negotiations seismically shifting in our favour towards the horizon of a renegotiated bailout for Ireland that would allow us to return to markets like some NewERA Lazarus that would pour molten oil on critics of Enda & Co and further enhance their standing on the world stage.

Yeah right, like the ESRI’s favorite phrase ‘revise down’ re its predictions for growth, statistically its successful predictions are on a straight line downward curve over the past number of years, ministers peddling the above nonsense are currently ‘revising down’ their expectations of a favorable deal for Ireland.

Like back seat passengers in a driverless limo carrying Bruton, Sutherland, Honahan, Dept of Fin and many others who got us into ‘promissory notes’, ‘default’, ‘the guarantee’ they realise all their guarantees and promises have been as empty as they are, so we have some murmurings coming from their bunker as they foresee failure.

Gilmore in Latin America has used the word ‘catastrophe’ if we do not get a deal. Now Sunday Indo p4, John Drennan/Daniel McConnell, according to Brendan Howlin, Minister for Public Expenditure, “Ireland’s fragile economic recovery will only be sustainable if a deal on the promissory note is secured”.

Lest you be taken in by Howlin’s words, let me explain, Ireland has had no recovery. Austerity has been eating away and eroding whatever economic muscle that financial meltdown still left intact. Another 700 jobs to go in B&Q announced this week as retail collapses into its black hole dragging with it whatever businesses have managed to survive to now.

Mortgage arrears continue to pile up with banks preparing for another bailout requirement. We have had no recovery because our debt is unsustainable and rating agencies and markets know this even if govt ministers like Howlin continue to play propaganda’s confidence card as Rome burns.

According to Daniel McConnell, p4, Sunday Independent, “ has emerged since last weekend, intensive discussions between the Central Bank of Ireland, led by Governor Patrick Honahan, top officials in the Department of Finance and the NTMA and senior officials in the ECB have taken place daily”.

OH no! you say! Not the same guys who gave is the bailout, the guarantee, the promissory note, the ‘no bondholder shall go unpaid’ mantra. Afraid so, one gigantic mess after another.

ESRI has revised downward its projections for growth this year. How often have we heard this?

ESRI conjure growth out of nothing and then repeatedly get it wrong and they continue to offer up unmitigated propaganda undiluted by the brass neck indifference to error. Yet the same agency has been used by government to argue that our sinkhole ‘bailout’ is sustainable, the figures provided by NAMA will eventually yield a return to the state in the red?

Do you recall the days when defenders of NAMA and the bailout trotted out the 3% growth rate projections while naysayers like yours truly poured cold water on such fantasy. Well, the chicken has come home to roost in more ways than one.

Earlier promises of a sustainable reworking of our bailout terms and the dreaded promissory notes have now reached endgame. The hide and seek provided by false projections re sustainability and renegotiated terms of our bailout by a sympathetic ECB is now in endgame.

Those negotiations should send a shiver down your back. The sell off of our state forests by Coillte to an international fund fronted by Bertie Ahearn, would that raise your eyebrows? Its more than a possibility. What dreadnought further ransacking of our economy is being proposed in these negotiations?

The more cynical among us look at the negotiations above as an exercise in how to protect the higher paid in the public service from future cuts, maybe the allocation of jobs based on fiduciary service to the ECB, the softening up of Irish negotiations weak at the knees at the prospect of this state being ransacked by the troika into oblivion.

Truly we are a large can of debt worms they would like to hide their debt in.

Simple way out of this of course in to fess up and say the deal is unsustainable and walk out of the negotiations, declare ourselves bankrupt and place our case in the international court of settlements, do an Iceland. Thereafter, it would make logical and economic sense to seek help from our neighbours in the UK and NI in economic partnership.

Ireland’s economic profile requiring flexibility and fungibility into currencies such as the dollar, sterling and the euro, is currently being dragged underwater by the euro currency. Economic union has been a horror story.

EMU has yet to build a sustainable banking system about which it is far and long from agreement.

EMU initial foundation has been flawed, its initial target to draw the outer core up to living standards and economic performance of inner core countries has instead exacerbated divisions and mounting conflict which will grow further as austerity grows. Unsupervision of its banking system and incompetence of leading national agencies such as Department of Finance, Central Bank, Anglo and leaders such as Bertie Ahearn in Ireland have proven to be a toxic combination.

Lack of flexibilty in the empowerment of member states to recover economic independance means the EMU is turning into a version of the USSR with a rouble currency.

We have moved long past the idealism of shared democratic participation as  the inner core led by Germany takes the EMU backward to a master slave relationship best describing another era.

Sure enough NEWera is about as new now as it sells off Ireland’s forests to Bertie Ahearn as the Treaty of Versailles(1919) was new in terms of war reparations that sold Germany to its debtors in WW1

A final word re the craven and incompetent silent negotiations of compliance and appeasement that have brought us nothing from ‘our negotiators’.

Resignations please!



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