Deductive Reasoning Vs Inductive Green Shoots?

November 7, 2010

We now look to the growing inevitability of Ireland Inc default. The question is, who will do the dig out, IMF or European Rescue fund. Maybe the Finn, Ollie Rehn, European Commissioner due to visit Ireland tomorrow will outline a proposal to Government giving the answer. For sure bond markets at spreads of 7.8% indicate default endgame play for Ireland Inc. Unfortunately the biggest barrier to correct response to our fiscal situation is our government in situ at present, lets endure some more before they disappear.

Have a read of

Will we have the IMF or the European Rescue Fund to manage our economy in the face of the closure of the bond markets to us? It would appear that this is a decision that will be made at commission level. I suspect because it is ‘cooking the books’ Greece involved in discussion above, that it will be a decision based on the amount of bailout required. Given the costs it will probably require both the IMF and the European Stability Rescue Fund to both make a contribution.

The politics involved include Germany not wishing to have to pony up for all the costs involved. Other parameters, would be remote ones including the breakup of the eurozone with ejection of some of its peripheral members. Probably some bilateral IMF/EU Stability Pact rescue fund hammering out with Ollie Rehn specific fiscal reforms for countries on the periphery.

I’m guessing with current pressure on Ireland we are going to be first in line for this type of intervention. Important we play our cards right and demand renegotiation with bondholders and avoid at all costs Suds and John Bruton nonsense. Firstly, as part of a failed attempt to con the bond markets we have a budget in four weeks time!

Assumptions if incorrect can infect argument, reasoning and can be very destructive and misleading.

Many years ago I recall reading Sargant who examines some of the physiological processes underlying assumptions that can lead to brainwashing of the individual and society.

In Haiti, a nod to the cholera outbreak(where are you UN?) here, he looked at a sophisticated American journalist sceptical of zombies/possession and voodoo, who participated in a ritual, drumming tattoos, repetitive movement, sound, vocal etc.

Sometime during the gyration dance, she collapsed and had this ‘out of body’ possession experience. Told beforehand she would be possessed by demons, the physiological experience during the ceremony reinforced this explanation and in turn led to her reinforcing her belief in possession and the teachings of voodoo.

She was Wrong!

The scientific explanation exists that drumming and other assisted ceremonial dancing/movement etc can match electical wavelengths in the brain and just like in the Tacoma Bridge disaster, where the wavelength of the wind force matched the wavelength of the steel of the bridge, both she and the Tacoma Bridge suffered from induced breakdown. Nothing strange, easily explainable in scientific terms.

We have to be very careful that inductive arguments that build evidence upon which, if the premises are true, well the conclusion is ‘probably true’.

Politicians use inductive argument a lot!

We should look to using reasoning and science, science does this anyway, to build propositions built on sound deductive arguments. These deductive arguments can be scientifically verified with evidence

So, lets look at my argument re Ollie Rehn and tax harmonisation and my view Irish people will end up paying paying higher tax.

Everything I’ve written regarding higher taxation is based on a deductive line of reasoning that assumes the Irish economy is collapsed and finished and will inevitably default, that we need a whole new order to build anew from the ground up .

I’ve consistently advocated that the Irish economy is infected with nepotism, croneyism and corruption. I don’t advocate the payment of taxes to pay for a collapsed relic of the Celtic tiger scam. This ‘old order’ is making the mess deeper with its attempts to levy taxpayers with the bills of banxters to pay for their debt reparations and to extort a reignition supply of capital from taxpayers.

This extraction of further rent from a broken economy will collapse the economy. The markets now agree with my position on this.

I’ve advocated debt renegotiation in the face of yelping from FF clowns that this amounted to treason and that it would ruin our economy.

Instead, we see tiger scamarama policy has brought the economy to ruin and lo and behold, Angela Merkel is now advocating a form of debt restructuring along the lines I and others have advocated.

Instead of our media and Government taking this as a lifeboat signal for the Irish economy, we have the craziness put out that Merkel’s statements are driving up the cost of Irish bond spreads!

Madness and incompetence of the highest order abound at the highest levels of our government and Dept of Finance!!!#?

When I speak of higher taxes, I don’t mean higher taxes to pay for debt reparations, croneyism, no tax for Dennis O Brien and continuation of the broken Irish economic bankocracy dictatorship of FF.

Root and branch change is required! A new list system, a streamlining and slimming down of our representative democracy, a higher rate of CT, efficiencies, fairness and productive development improvements across the broad spectrum of Irish society to release its native talent. – Native talent that from Maynooth has made huge experimental contributions to space exploration

Yeah, higher taxes, to pay for a better, fairer, more efficient, professional new order in this country, not the rubbish ‘road to nowhere decentralisation’ bankrupt policies we have to endure from the present incumbents. A better and more efficient health and education service.

OT on the last bondholder broadcast when the Lenihan, who is not great at either economics or arithmetic(one day his figures will be right:)), was heckled with ’short’, ’short’ and banana republic monkey sounds, apparently he was trying to sell them the idea that Ireland would’nt be paying its bond coupons for the next few years, but would be issuing promissory notes to bondholders instead? The Greeks just before their last rescue tried the same trick!

CT I’ve written about deductively here I would urge great caution in the inductive line of argument that goes, we have 12.5% corporation tax, corporations are here in Ireland and providing jobs, therefore 12.5% CT is both correct and right.

No it ain’t. CT should be used to levy a reasonable contribution to Irish society. Don’t be misled by our mongrel Moron zombie government that touts it as a sacred cow that without it will see jobs flee Ireland!

Re Ollie Rehn, the traction Ollie has comes from the Rescue Fund/IMF money Ireland will need to get our economy going again. It comes from the wasted billions lent by Ollie to pay for NAMA. Rail all you like against him and his team, but beggars can’t be choosers, we can’t bite the hand that feeds us, anyways he can’t make a bigger mess of our budgetary and fiscal situation than has been made already by our native grown gombeen morons who’ve ruined Ireland Inc.

We need good builders to build it again. We’ve had enough demolition experts. We are in IMF/ European Rescue Fund land. That’s the reality, let’s face it and advocate ways to build from the ashes!


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